Italians face to face this Sunday elections more decisiveAs all polls show, the far-right Giorgia Meloni She could make history if she becomes the first woman to come to power in Italy at the head of the country’s most right-wing government since the end of World War II.
The coalition, which included the far-right League led by Matteo Salvini and the leader of the Brothers of Italy (FdI), and the conservative Forza Italia (FI) led by Silvio Berlusconi, Big favorites for what was expected to be a crushing victory.Polls show him almost 20 points ahead of Enrico Letta’s progressive Democratic Party (PD) and its junior centre-left allies.
Salvini and Berlusconi’s ties to Vladimir Putin’s Russia, Meloni’s and partners’ conflicts with Europe, tras will soften his Eurosceptic speechor the fear that an overwhelming majority could change the constitution without unanimous consent marked an unprecedented summer campaign that failed to attract the attention of Italians, with almost 40% abstaining and hesitant.
a long day
Almost 51 million Italians called to vote this Sunday is a very long election day will start at 07:00 local time (05.00 GMT) and will end at 23:00 (GMT 21:00), the closing time of the ballot boxes and when the exit ballot boxes are known.
in these elections 600 deputies to be elected (400 deputies and 200 senators) with 4,193 candidates for the House of Representatives and 2,152 candidates for the Senate, following a reform approved in a referendum compared to the current 945 (630 and 315), while the region of Sicily (south) will vote for the election of its president and the renewal of its parliament. for.
Moreover, around 2.7 million young people will vote for the first time and after the recent amendment to Article 58 of the Constitution, they will be able to do this not only for the House of Representatives but also for the Senate.
this lombardy regionwhose capital is Milan top voterwith 7.5 millionWhile Rome is the city with the largest electoral body: More than 2 million, as a curiosity, according to data provided by the Ministry of the Interior, the town of Rocca de’ Giorgi (north) is the opposite and has only 25 voters.
Meloni, the undisputed favorite
Required the establishment of recent Italian governments complex deals Among the parties that almost never managed to win a quorum, but on this occasion the right seems to have united, at least on paper, with Meloni as its undisputed leader.
On the last day that Italian law allows polls to be published, 15 days before the elections, the FdI received about 25% of the vote, A meteoric increase of 4% in the 2018 election thanks to Meloni and playing the role of sole opposition to Mario Draghi’s national unity government, increasing his coalition to 45%.
The PD is the second party with 21.5%, while its coalition with other smaller progressive forces reaches only 27.2%. There is a difference of almost 20 points between them and their competitors.
The 5-Star Movement (M5S), where Giuseppe Conte broke the electoral deal after Letta led Draghi down, has 15% that puts him ahead of the League (12.3%) and FI (8%) and that will allow it. plays an important role in the opposition.
While the so-called “third pole” created by the centrists Acción and Italia Viva, with whom PD could not reach agreementIt stands at 6.7%.
abstention and election system, keys
in the results abstaining and undecided will play an important roleThe figure is so high, at around 40% according to these latest polls, that it alone could change any outcome, but it seems unlikely that the right will win an absolute majority this time.
Moreover complex electoral system is keyfavors grand coalitions.
about a Mixed system where 61% of seats are allocated proportionally -according to the votes received- and 37% adhere to a majority with single-member votersThe coalition, not the party that gets one more vote, will take the seat, and the remaining 0.2 percent is reserved for foreigners.
Experts agree on this made better use of the features of the right electoral law and their grand coalitions have already warned that if they win in all single-member associations and the much more fragmented left they can add up to 70% of parliamentary representation, this could allow them to amend the Constitution without the need for consensus of the parties or citizens to be approved in a referendum.