Nuclear checkmate?

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Nine countries have atomic weapons: Russia, USA, China, France, UK, Pakistan, India, Israel and North Korea. Together they add 12,705 nuclear warheads, according to the latest report from the International Peace Research Institute in Stockholm. At the end of the Cold War in 1986, there were 70,374 heads. this Disarmament agreements between the USA and the USSR (Russia) An 80% reduction was achieved. They will increase after the invasion of Ukraine this year. We should not go into the propaganda of numbers, a small part of these weapons will be enough to end human life.

The Cold War had a foundation. terror principle: No superpower can gain an advantage by attacking first. The response will be automatic. It was called MAD: Assured Mass Destruction in English. He had memories of Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

While Vladimir Putin’s nuclear threats are not new, this time they are dangerous because they are an admission of his weakness in Ukraine. With the unilateral annexation of Donbas, Kherson and other towns, it is trying to draw red lines inside Ukraine to consider any advance as a direct attack on Russia’s territorial integrity.

Putin is not crazy

Putin is a confused and isolated man, but not crazy (for now). He appeals to his audience: the oligarchs who support him, a quasi-nationalist ultranationalist network. fascist very active on television and on social networks, to the generals and the military industry.

It seeks to respond to military setbacks by mobilizing at least 300,000 reservists. You can’t let the perception of you take over. lose the war, or you can lose it. this detects they are more important than weapons: they increase or impair combat morale and cause riots.

This week it received private complaints from China and public complaints from India. It is a warning that friendships are not unconditional. Beijing will play a key role in suppressing the nuclear explosion. He offers his verbal support to Moscow, but does not give him a weapon. China needs peace to grow.

Russia’s situation will not be resolved with hundreds of thousands of reservists, many of them trained. old or destroyed military equipment. The problem is structural: the military is as corrupt as the system. Fuel shortages at the front are not just due to poor planning and Ukrainian guerrilla warfare. High officials steal to get on the road with him.

First mobilization in years

This is the first mobilization since the Second World War, a defensive war against the West. Nazism. This time envelope patriotic it just depends propaganda, not from reality. Sending troops is not new. It happened in Afghanistan and it ended in disaster.

Retired Australian Major General Mick Ryan, famous for his excellent Twitter posts, says the goal is not to add reinforcements to existing forces, but to act as an aid. seven months of war and they’re out. It also confirms that it will take time for them to reach the operational area and that Ukraine has a few weeks to advance in the Donbas. Everyone tries to fix the optimal positions before winter. We won’t know the effectiveness of the reserves until 2023. We are in a long war scenario.

The US and EU accuse Putin of using weapons. dangerous nuclear rhetoric. It is, but it has been on the table since the lightning operation to conquer Kiev in four days went wrong.

In these cases, there are two levels of communication: what is said in public and what is noticed in private. Charles de Gaulle defended himself against the threat of the USSR ambassador, who was protesting his alliance with the United States in the Cold War, “Soviet missiles pointing to france‘, a resounding ‘well, we’re both going to die because ours is aimed at Moscow.’

Russia is nuclear

Russia has more nuclear warheads than the United States, 5,977 versus 5,428. France, 290 and the United Kingdom, 225. If we have time, we can destroy each other several times.

No one would think of a nuclear world war, but other scenarios should not be ruled out either: tactical nuclear Against the troops of the Ukrainian Army, against the civilian population in a symbolic place or in a deserted area on the day when the weather forecast is favorable and the wind carries the radioactive cloud to Poland and Germany, the Baltic states and new NATO partners. It can also be a reason Chernobyl in Zaporizhia.

What would be the reaction of the USA and NATO? Will we be nuclear, conventional or depending on what China says? It would be checkmate because no Western leader would dare to engage in this dynamic. Is a small one kiloton bomb enough for Putin to win the war, or will it provoke a revolution at home? We’re dealing with a chess player who has lost his morals and plays poker. No good cards, just shouting. His options are to retreat or smash the table with his fists. The first is impossible, life depends on it.

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