Josep Soler: “Economic contraction may not be that strong”

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Optimism is moderate. CEO of the Institut d’Estudis Financers (FSR), Joseph Soler, guarantees that the constituent elements may exist.most the economic contraction is not as strong as expected”. The head of the country’s first training center specializing in finance will give a lecture this Friday. economical situation inside Cornellà Creation and in his speech to this newspaper, he warns that the new economic slowdown will cause. credit crunchwhich will mainly affect SMEsbecause it’s still high rely on bank finance.

Saying that he is pessimistic by nature, Soler admits that he was surprised by the waves. bad omens released on this economic situation. According to him, there are elements that can reduce the effects of the war in Ukraine and climbing inflation. For example, central banks “They can raise interest rates with enough care not to slow the economy.”

Another factor is the fiscal policies of governments. assistance and support to families and economic sectors. In addition, a high level of tax collection is maintained and one of the positive effects of inflation is the decrease in the real value of the debt.

In addition, Soler, executive delegate of the European Financial Planning Association in Spain and board member of the European Banking and Financial Services Education Association, and independent director of companies such as Mediolanum Gestión SGIIC, Mediolanum Pensiones, TREA, among others, said that the multiplier effect was greater than expected. underscores the importance of European ‘Next Generation’ funds, although small.

According to him, the rise euribor, the main mortgage reference is “assumable” and keep in mind that the maximum level of this indicator will be reached in more than a year when the situation may change for the better. Another positive aspect of the increase in the price of money is that it should improve the returns for savers who have not been able to get their money’s worth for years.

Soler warns that this new slowdown or economic crisis is catching up again with the changing pace. In fact, the credit restriction currently being implemented is related to the high dependence on bank financing. In Spain, other avenues such as venture capital, crowdfunding or even stock market filing, which remain a “huge minority” among SMEs, have not yet settled.

One piece of data reflects this: in the US bank financing and alternative are shared 50%, while in Europe the former reaches 90% of the total. And another sign that families and companies in Spain are still very “ultra-conservative” about savings: half a billion euros in accounts and deposits, but not yielding accounts.

Soler was CEO of Databolsa, commercial director of the Barcelona Stock Exchange, and auditor of the European Commission, among other positions he held throughout his career.

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