this physicist and mathematician Antonio Turiel inspector CSIC and author of ‘The Oil Crash’ blog, just posted with Juan Bordera’fall of civilization‘, he cites the leaked reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which presents a pessimistic outlook here.
Is our time up?
Expectations are pretty bad. A three-degree rise at the end of the century is a realistic scenario and a disaster. Compared to the pre-industrial period, the temperature increased by 1.1 degrees and in Spain by 1.7 degrees, and we notice this a lot. Typical summer temperatures on the Peninsula will be around 50 degrees Celsius by 2050. It has been leaked that all coal and gas power plants must be shut down before 2030 to prevent catastrophic warming, and in this energy crisis, the EU has approved an increase in coal use.
What situation are we in to make the energy transition, and how does the lack of supply affect it?
People have been led to say that it is easy and even possible to make a transition where we replace fossil energy with renewable energy. And this is wrong. It has limitations, including materials. They are an aid, but do not allow for complete substitution. We don’t have any technology that allows us to keep things as they are. We must accept that we will have to reduce our consumption. Fossil fuels have reached their maximum extraction.
Everything?
Oil production is already declining, uranium production more or less coal production and gas production will soon fall. We’re out of time before this breakdown starts. This is a slow process that will take decades, but the world will compete for increasingly scarce resources. High prices, problems between countries, wars. Before Russia invaded Ukraine, we already had high energy and fuel prices. It was inevitable. There are two questions. One is the increase in cost, and the other is that the resources are not even available.
Commercial fusion of hydrogen, still theoretical, is a panacea.
No, no, no, this is bullshit. There are theoretical reasons to think this is an impossible project, there are fundamental unresolved questions. To think it will happen just because it suits us is self-deception.
Are our societies socially and politically prepared for a steady decline?
No. But you have to understand that this is not a choice, thinking that way is in favor of the idea that you can wait. We are in decline, less oil is coming, coal, whatever you do. This winter will see some pretty sharp drops. Society has not been mentalized, has not been honest with it. We knew for a long time that this would happen, but we expected a miraculous technology that would save the ballot. Talking about merger shows what this community is thinking.
And what will happen?
It will be a huge cultural shock: People will understand that they are being constrained in an ecological agenda, and they will not understand that it is because there is nothing. I think there will be a lot of social protests, even riots.
And what about between the West and countries like China that need high growth rates to maintain stability?
Each of them will have to search for life. We will compete for dwindling resources. Europe is losing its relevance and is not aware of it. He has practically no resources and will realize that they cannot be sold to him. China has resources and can last longer if they channel them to the real needs of its population. The United States is the same. We will see an increasing protectionism of resources and products. Europe will experience a very strong setback in a few years if you are not careful.
Historically, it has sought to politically control resource-producing poor countries.
It will have to be militarily, and that’s what he thinks. The current rearmament to theoretically fight Russia is a preparation for resource wars. Europe lacks the political capacity to seize natural resources: it is heading towards apathy, and its only capacity to maintain a certain hegemony is militarily.
Will we get more immigration?
Definitely in the short term. In the long run, when Europe becomes significantly impoverished, there will be other sources of attraction, such as China. But there will be a lot of activity and conflict.
What should Europe do?
The first step is to understand the situation. will be moving [en Europa] because it will be very expensive to bring something from outside. And we are much more vulnerable to food than we think and we are in a global food crisis. 70% of fertilizer plants in Europe closed due to gas prices. We must create a climate-change-adapted resilient agriculture that can feed the European population. In Spain this is possible, in other countries it is more complicated. Also fix the water.
How to save production?
It is necessary to save tradesmen and nearby employment by reducing distribution networks that consume too much energy. And reuse of materials is key. And there are aspects of mobility and urban planning.
A large population in Galicia is dependent on cars. Will this not be sustainable in ten, fifteen years?
It won’t happen in ten years. We are having the above issue. In the short term, concentration of people will be preferred; medium, other mobility models, public transport, car rental. Not easy.