Five of the sixteen points of no return (beyond that, catastrophic climate change is inevitable even if global warming stops) may have already been triggered, and every one in ten increases the likelihood of such events occurring.
This was prompted by a new study led by the University of Stockholm, in which the University of Exeter (UK) participated, among other centres. Sciencewhich leads to the following conclusion: Up to 10 points of no return “likely” to be reached even if it is possible to limit global warming to less than 2ºC from pre-industrial levels by the end of the century.
Nine ‘tipping points’ were known so far (processes that, if activated, would trigger a series of effects that would eliminate the possibility of avoiding the worst consequences of the climate crisis), but now scientists have identified seven other points in this analysis. there is no turning back, says Efe.
These processes occur when changes occur in certain parts of the climate system (known as “tipping elements”). becomes “self-sustaining” after passing a certain heating threshold.
An example of this “positive feedback” phenomenon is the loss of winter ice from the Barents Sea; this is “a fact reinforced by the increased flow of warm water from the Atlantic and has a significant impact on atmospheric circulation, climate and potentially the Atlantic Meridional Tipping Circulation.
the situation is getting worse
The latest version of the UN’s group of climate experts, the IPCC, is the sixth assessment report, released to the public last April, warning of a “high” risk and a “very high” climate of points of no return from a 2°C temperature rise. “High” risk when it exceeds 2.5 ºC.
However, the new study is at the current warming level (1.1 ºC) andIt is possible that the world has already abandoned its “safe” climate state. and five of the 16 ‘tipping points’ have been activated, these can be:
one.- Shrinking of the Greenland ice sheets.
two.- Reduction of glaciers in West Antarctica.
3.- Sudden melting of permafrost -frozen soil- in frozen areas.
4.- Labrador Sea convection collapse (one of the new found)
5.- Mass demise of coral reefs tropical.
Scientists insist on the need to mitigate climate change for the purpose of the Paris Agreement – keeping the increase below 2ºC and, if possible, below one and a half degrees by the end of the century – research shows, risk of flashing irreversible scores by every tenth of a degree which adds up to the planet’s average temperature.
According to his calculations, some of the next points of no return to activate (from 2ºC) are the complete degradation of the Amazon forest, the collapse of East Antarctica’s subglacial basins (another of the new ‘tipping points’), or the collapse of mountain glaciers in the Americas southern cone. loss.
The study authors state that: human activities are leading the world to “warm by 2 ºC and up to 3 ºC by the end of the century” and that global greenhouse gas emissions must be halved by 2030 to have a 50% chance of meeting the Paris target (keeping it below one and a half degrees).
Ricarda Winkelmann, a climatologist at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and co-author of the study, highlights additional concern about the interrelationship of points of no return. can cause a cascade effect.
“In fact, interactions can lower critical temperature thresholds at which individual tipping elements begin to destabilize over the long term,” he warns.
For this reason, scientists also highlight the need to adapt to the effects of irreversible and unavoidable points and to “support those who suffer uninsured loss and damage.”
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