Nearly 15 million Chileans are in a position to vote this Sunday whether to ratify the new Magna Carta, which a joint convention has drawn up for a year with a progressive orientation unprecedented in Latin America. As is often the case in that country, society comes to consultation amid a strong polarization that does not exclude tense moments and aggression.
For months, surveys Getting the “Decline” option It is supported by right-wing parties and a section of the political centre, with a margin of at least ten points. However, a recent survey known days ago at Plaza Pública/Cadem reduced the distance. to half. The official closing of the campaigns took place last Thursday. A wide range of centre-left and left “I approve” won the streets with surprising mass dwarf protests of his opponents. These scenes gave to the presidential government Gabriel Boric A ray of hope before the ballot boxes open. Another element that can bring innovation to the review is about participation in the election. one in chile 50% of the census. If it is confirmed that 70% will happen this time, the course of the result may bring surprises.
The new Constitution introduced the right-wing president in November 2019, Sebastian Pinera, in the event of unexpected unmanageability. The horizon of the conflict was narrowed by a multi-party agreement to replace the Magna Carta, which was the hallmark of the general’s dictatorship. Augusto Pinochet (1973-90). Under the effects of this mass protest, “entrance plebisciteTo the Constituent Assembly: 79% supported doing this through a Convention. The assembly that drafted the Magna Carta was dominated by the left and had a strong gender focus. The right had no veto power and launched a systematic campaign to discredit its content. Fake news expropriations, local courts prescribed abortion at nine months of pregnancy. Some of the population accepted this as fact. 50% of Chileans admitted that they knew little or nothing about the text in the game.
Possible scenarios
Experts see four possible scenarios. The first is “I accept” in favor of the vast majority, which is devastating, not predicted by polls, but felt on the streets. A second, with the polls confirmed: “Red” wins by a narrow margin, forcing it to define a new constitutional process in the least amount of time. four months. Analysts also consider, by a smaller distance, a victory for Confirmation and, finally, a situation of uncertainty and conflict that puts the handbrake on any future instance of change where “No” wins and the most irreconcilable right will open once again. gates of social conflict.
Boric played some of his capital in this query. If the results are not the most desirable, it will try to invoke a call. new formation process. “I find it hard to imagine after what happened in Chile that we decided to go back to square one,” he said. If the long-awaited miracle happens and “I approve” wins, the Government is also open to making some “corrections” to the text. It has already started an invitation to the right-wing parties who want to sit down and participate in these possible changes.