“Winter will pass”
According to Dan Sabbag, Russia’s military special operation will “last at least a year”. At the same time, he certainlyHe said it had “essentially reached a stalemate and decreased in intensity.”
“Six months of the war have passed, but neither Ukraine nor Russia is ready to stop hostilities, despite the losses incurred. Ukraine wants back the occupied territories <…> “The Kremlin believes that winter will play in its favour,” he said.
He noted that there was practically no negotiation between the two sides of the conflict. However, in his view, the advance of the Russian troops and the allies was “little after the fall of Lisichansk at the end of June.”
“Both sides are fighting for momentum and seem increasingly war-weary,” Sabbagh said.
“Partisan raids”
The journalist wrote that “Ukraine does not have the means for a traditional effective counterattack.” At the same time, Kyiv is conducting “guerrilla raids”, which the author of the article sees as “an optimistic way to accelerate the collapse of Russia.”
“Ukraine wants to retake Kherson west of the Dnieper, but a senior administration official admitted privately that they “do not have enough capacity to repel them.” changed,” Sabbagh explained.
He recalled that Mikhail Podolyak, adviser to the head of the presidential office, described the purpose of these actions as “to create chaos within the Russian forces.”
“However, although this will reduce the effectiveness of (Russian Armed Forces – socialbites.ca), it is unlikely that this will lead to the failure of (Russian Armed Forces – socialbites.ca) and some Ukrainians to voluntarily surrender Kherson, as the authorities had hoped,” he said. said the journalist.
Protection of controlled areas
Sabbagh also argued in his article that Russia’s attention would “turn to maintaining its gains” and that Ukrainian territory was taken under control, although the Russian Federation “still wants to advance”.
“Russia has no new offensive plan other than to build up artillery and move forward. It does this in part to be effective and partly to minimize casualties, with Western estimates of 15,000 dead. Progress is slow, in part because Russia had to redeploy some of its forces to strengthen Kherson,” he wrote.
He also believes that the Kremlin “may not have achieved what it originally hoped for,” but “now Russia owns extensive Ukrainian territory to the east and south and is actively talking about holding a referendum.”
Refugee Crisis
Sabbagh is confident that winter will exacerbate the refugee crisis and “create an opportunity for all those who are best prepared.”
“Winter is first and foremost a strategic consideration for both sides. Ukraine is already concerned about humanitarian problems, as there is no gas heating in the Donetsk region and other front-line areas. “A representative of a humanitarian organization predicted a new wave of migration in winter, with possibly up to 2 million people crossing the border into Poland,” he said.
He added that the Russians see winter as an opportunity. In Ukraine, they fear that Russia will “target the energy system”, exacerbating the heating problem, for example by closing the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant. He also believes that the West can increase the pressure on Moscow as it experiences the “pain” of continuing to rise in energy prices.
But spring may be the time for a new offensive – both sides will want to resupply and prepare for what will likely be another war season.
Addiction to materials from the West
Sabbagh stressed that the West must decide whether it wants Ukraine to win or continue. Accordingly, Kiev has to decide how much to meet its “enormous need for aid.”
“Ukraine would have been defeated had it not been for the military aid of the West. But so far the West has not provided enough artillery or other weapons such as fighter jets to ensure the Kiev retreat (Russian Armed Forces – socialbites.ca). Politicians (from the West – socialbites.ca) talk about the need to push Russia back to the pre-war borders, but do not provide enough equipment for this, ”the author wrote.
The journalist noted that Ukraine’s need for humanitarian aid continues to increase. There is a shortage of money for rebuilding the country, and many houses northeast and northwest of Kiev are in ruins, even five months after the withdrawal of Russian troops. Local residents are “desperate”, “living in garages or temporary buildings.”
“IDPs are often forced to live in schools or kindergartens, in temporary housing where people find it difficult to stay for long periods of time. Ukraine has a budget deficit of $5 billion a month due to the war; aid and reconstruction will cost many times more,” Sabbagh concluded.
“No third”
Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council, replied to The Guardian journalist on the Telegram channel, “Victory predictions are being built in Kiev and in Western countries connected to Ukraine.” And “in fact, all this is pure lies and demagoguery for the treatment of voters.”
“Everyone understands everything. But they figure out the roles. There is only one and a half scenarios. Firstly, the achievement of all the goals of the NWO and the final recognition of its results in Kiev. Secondly, a military coup in Ukraine and only then the recognition of the results of the special operation. That’s all the options. Medvedev wrote Tertium non datur (translated from Latin as “The third is not given” – “socialbites.ca”).
The previous day, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, speaking at the meeting of defense ministers of the countries of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, said that slowing the offensive during a special operation in Ukraine was a conscious decision aimed at minimizing civilian casualties.
In his opinion, the Russian side strictly adheres to the norms of humanitarian law: strikes are carried out with high-precision weapons on the military infrastructure of the Ukrainian Armed Forces: command posts, airfields, warehouses, fortified areas, facilities of the military-industrial complex .
“At the same time, everything is being done to prevent casualties among civilians. Of course, this slows down the rate of attack, but we do it consciously.”