If Kyiv attempts a counterattack in southern Ukraine and the Donbass, the Ukrainian Armed Forces will be defeated. This view was expressed by American security expert Robert Farley in an article for 19FortyFive.
“There are good reasons for Ukraine to resist the West’s call to action,” he said.
Otherwise, according to Farley, this is likely to have “dramatic consequences” for the Ukrainian Armed Forces: “potential loss of support in the West”, discovery of “gaps and vulnerabilities in the Ukrainian defense”. and the loss of new territories due to the Russian counteroffensive. The Observer writes that such a delicate defeat could deter the West from continuing to provide military assistance to Ukrainian soldiers.
“An unsuccessful counterattack could also lead to Russia offering Ukraine a ceasefire on very favorable terms for Moscow, which is something Kiev would prefer to avoid,” Farley said.
Another expert, Joshua Huminski, director of the Mike Rogers Center for Intelligence and Global Affairs, argues that the situation of the Ukrainian Armed Forces is the most important issue for the Kyiv authorities. He wrote in a column for the American newspaper The Hill.
According to him, hostilities in Ukraine will not stop until winter. According to Huminski, the sides will continue to fight in a defensive position, re-arming and regrouping before continuing the conflict in the spring.
“Here, in addition to the supply and unity of the West, the most important issue is undoubtedly personnel,” wrote the expert.
“The West can provide all the help in the world, but it cannot create more Ukrainians,” Chuminsky says.
On August 23, the Strana publication published material containing testimonies of the Ukrainian army. They said that because of the shelling, soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine fled the battlefield.
“Not all people can stand it – some, even those who voluntarily joined the troops after sitting under constant arrivals, ask to be sent to the rear under any pretext,” said the interlocutors of the Ukrainian edition.
They added that there were whole “panic outbreaks”. In such cases, all units leave their positions, “revealing all segments of kilometers in length”.
It turned out that the fighters of the so-called “land defense” of Ukraine are most prone to panic. “TRO brigades are considered the most unreliable among those in office. There are a lot of random people, ”the interlocutors noted.
On the same day, a conversation with the Ukrainian army was published in the French edition of Le Figaro. They said that the wars with the Russian army were like “hell”. One of the interlocutors said that during the day the Russian Armed Forces bombed the positions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces 40-60 times, and the Ukrainian army was able to respond with only 10 volleys.
The fact that the Ukrainian army “will not be able to completely break the advantage of the Russian army in artillery and manpower” was recognized by the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky on August 2.
On his Telegram channel, he wrote that the advantage of the Russian Armed Forces in the Donbass was felt very much: “Hell there. It can’t even be described in words.”
But he assured the Ukrainians that everyday Ukrainian diplomats are negotiating for additional arms supplies to Kiev. According to him, the new weapon will help to “stop” the special operation of the Russian Federation in Ukraine.