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— At the Davos Forum, the WHO director-general discussed the hypothetical scenario of a pandemic sparked by a disease X. He stressed that disease X is not a real pathogen, but a conceptual threat for which global preparation is essential. What is the purpose of this discussion?

— The WHO chief is entitled to raise such questions. Throughout human history, epidemics have occurred, and future outbreaks are inevitable. Advances in synthetic biology raise the possibility that a pathogen could be created or modified by human activity. Following the coronavirus pandemic, doubt and criticism toward the WHO increased, yet funding remains a critical requirement for effective action. This is why preparedness and financing were highlighted. In essence, the warning is a chance to be ready when the next epidemic arrives.

— Picture a highly dangerous disease X. What kind of agent could trigger it? Bacteria? Fungi? A virus?

“It could be bacterial or fungal in nature. Protozoa could also play a role. But statistical odds point toward a virus as the most likely culprit.”

“Viruses are often easier to engineer with modern tools,” the expert notes. The human factor in creating a disease X becomes more pronounced with synthetic biology.

“Second, broad-spectrum antibiotics have become a tool against bacteria, with some countries reserving last-resort options for extreme resistance. Antibiotics can also be combined to combat bacterial threats.”

— How do fungi and bacteria compare in this context?

“Even the immune system handles them well most of the time. Historically, a fungal pathogen has not caused a global pandemic. There have been localized hospital outbreaks, but no widespread collapse driven by fungi.”

“Creating a man-made fungal superpathogen is not a simple feat. A virus remains the simplest system to engineer.”

— Do we know more about bacteria than viruses at this stage of science?

– Yes. There is much that remains unknown about many viruses, which is why research continues vigorously. Some labs around the world—China, the United States, and beyond—are actively studying new samples. They often start with in vitro cell cultures from non-human cells to see whether a virus can replicate in human cells. If results suggest potential, researchers may test in human cell cultures.

— Is there a moment when a virus from animals is tested on human cells only in the lab?

— Exactly. In such cases, scientists may ask whether a mutation could enable the virus to infect human cells. This is a realistic scenario that has been discussed in relation to the COVID-19 outbreak and the lessons learned from it.

— How many laboratories worldwide could perform these kinds of studies?

— There are hundreds, spanning both developed and developing regions. Scientists in virology conferences share reports and findings, underscoring the global nature of this research.

— If viruses are listed by current examples, which is most likely to be the driver of the next epidemic?

“It is unlikely to arise from a completely new virus family. The next pandemic would most likely involve a mammalian or avian virus. Viruses from reptiles or fish are far less likely to jump to humans.”

— Why does avian influenza pose a particular risk?

“Experts keep a close watch on bird flu because of its potential. It has been monitored carefully, in contrast to coronaviruses before the pandemic. Early work with coronaviruses sometimes occurred under lower biosafety levels, which contributed to risk. Bird flu is an example of a pathogen that requires strict controls.”

Many agree that bird flu is a real concern, but a key point is that a future epidemic might hinge on an agent currently under the radar.

— Could laboratories add mutations to make bird flu more transmissible among humans?

“There is substantial knowledge in this area, and such alterations are technically feasible for scientists with the right resources.”

— Is it possible to create a flu virus that could wipe out humanity in a laboratory?

— It is not simple, and it would require top-tier facilities and safeguards. Any such effort would entail high-risk, specialized work that is tightly regulated and monitored.

— Can a virus that can destroy humanity be described in terms of its required traits?

— An airborne, respiratory virus with a slow progression could be deadly by causing extensive transmission before noticeable illness. The incubation period would be lengthy, allowing spread before detection and response.

— Were there reports that a lethal virus was created in China? Could it trigger a deadly outbreak?

— Mortality is just one measure of danger. If a pathogen kills quickly, it may not spread widely enough to be devastating. A balance of transmission and virulence is what determines the impact.

— Do naturally occurring respiratory viruses ever have long incubation periods?

— While unusual for common respiratory infections, theoretical possibilities exist. In practice, many pathogens develop in ways that can delay symptoms while spreading further.

— Is a hybrid of influenza and HIV a concern?

– There is no need for a literal hybrid. Viral evolution can be steered by selective pressures, and modern computational tools help scientists model possible directions. This makes it possible to anticipate and prepare for plausible scenarios.

Another noted phenomenon is how virus interactions can worsen outcomes when co-infections occur. A recent Nature article described cases where a herpes or adenovirus interacts with another virus to damage liver cells in children, triggering severe hepatitis and raising global health concerns noted by the World Health Organization in multiple countries.

— If a likely pathogen is identified, what comes next?

— The discussion highlights that while bird flu is a known risk, there are other candidates under study. The reality is that grants and research funding may flow to investigate potential causes of disease X, as a precaution for future outbreaks.