Researchers from the University of Pretoria in South Africa examined the present state and the future outlook for African elephants across the continent. Their assessment indicates that, at current levels of habitat and protection, elephant populations cannot remain stable for long due to the shortage of suitable spaces for long-term persistence. The findings were published in the scientific journal Science Advances (SciAdv).
Today, roughly 410,000 savannah elephants (Loxodonta africana) inhabit Africa, with a large share concentrated in the southern regions of the continent. More than 290,000 elephants, about 70 percent of the continental total, occupy 103 protected areas whose sizes and protection levels vary widely.
Between 1995 and 2020, elephant numbers in South Africa grew, on average, by about 0.16 percent per year. In practical terms, this means the population today is about as large as it was a quarter of a century earlier, despite ongoing conservation efforts and management actions.
The analysis suggests that allowing elephants to move freely across suitable landscapes presents the most reliable path to keeping the global population stable. Relying on small, tightly fenced reserves can curb short-term losses but would not sustain a consistent, long-term balance as elephants respond to changing environmental conditions and human pressures.
As an alternative to very small reserves, the researchers propose networks of protected areas that connect well-protected core habitats with surrounding, less-protected buffer zones. This connected landscape approach would enable elephants to access diverse resources, migrate seasonally, and share space with human communities in a way that supports safety, resilience, and coexistence. The study stresses that such linkages are essential for maintaining a stable population across the continent while supporting ecosystem functions that rely on elephant activity, such as forest health and savanna dynamics.
Previously, scientists have highlighted the crucial ecological role elephants play in shaping landscapes. They help maintain healthy forests by creating openings that promote new growth and by dispersing seeds across large distances, ultimately influencing biodiversity, carbon storage, and habitat structure. The current work expands on that understanding by integrating population dynamics, spatial planning, and management scenarios that could guide policy makers and conservation practitioners in Canada and the United States who monitor elephant populations or collaborate on cross-border wildlife initiatives. The findings underscore the need for landscape-scale thinking and transboundary cooperation to ensure the species maintains its ecological role in African ecosystems while meeting conservation and human development objectives.