commitments oil companies insufficient to prevent climate catastrophe. The decarbonisation scenarios that companies like BP, Shell or Equinor have committed themselves to are insufficient to rein in the temperature rise as a result of climate change. they are not ambitious enough enough to prevent the planet from warming above one and a half degrees.
This is revealed by a recent study published in the journal Science. Nature Communication and is led by the Climate Analytics organization, which has concluded that the decarbonisation scenarios for 2050 that these companies have published between 2020 and 2021 will not meet the Paris Agreement’s most important goal: keeping the temperatures at bay.
To create these scenarios By estimating the energy needs of different sectors, the amount of energy resources they need to supply is calculated. in the next decades. These projections of the energy mix (fossil fuels, nuclear or renewable energy, among others) are then used to estimate the resulting carbon emissions. Scientists from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) have been experimenting and forecasting for years to understand how the concentrations of greenhouse gases humanity will emit by the end of the century will change the planet.
To demonstrate your commitment to combating climate change, oil companies developed their own scenariosincluding decarbonization targets. However, for decades these assumptions could not be compared to those envisioned by the scientific community at the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), so it was very difficult to decide whether they actually comply with the Paris Agreement. .
All scenarios are insufficient
Scientists have tried to combine the results of corporate plans from companies and the International Energy Agency (IEA) into three scenarios, often based on more or less ambitious energy targets. With these data, it is stated that the work they plan to do to reduce dependence on fossil fuels can prevent a warming exceeding 2ºC with a 66% probability. none limit warming to below 1.5ºC set by the Paris Agreement. In fact, based on these projections, it will “exceed by a significant margin,” according to Robert Brecha, co-author of this article.
For example, the scenario that requires a moderate commitment rebalancing Equinor will reach a maximum temperature peak of 1.73°C in 2060 relative to pre-industrial levels. Scene fast BP will not be able to meet the targets either. This scenario, which foresees a 70% decrease in energy-related emissions by 2050, will reach its maximum peak in 2058, when they will exceed 1.73 °C. Meanwhile, Shell’s ‘Sky’ scenario, which aims to achieve net zero emissions by 2070, will not prevent temperatures from rising by 1.81 °C until 2069. The International Energy Agency (IEA, its English acronym) is in it Current Development Scenario With gradual zero emission determination (SDS) for developed countries in 2050, for China in 2060 and for emerging economies in 2070, warming will not fall below 1.78 °C and the maximum peak will be reached in 2056.
even the scene netzero BP’s most ambitious, resulting in an average maximum warming of 1.65°C, very high Being consistent with the criteria of the Paris Agreement because, as the researchers point out, “every fraction of a degree counts.” Just the scene at the end NetZero 2050 The IEA is in line with the goals of the Paris Agreement.
Don’t let oil companies have inadequate targets
Researchers insist that these commitments are not enough, because “Exceeding even a temporary 1.5°C warming will have disastrous consequences. and severely undermines our ability to adapt to climate change,” explains Bill Hare, Executive Director of Climate Analytics. It is “important not to allow” oil companies to create scenarios that do not meet Paris Agreement requirements.
“It is also important to be aware of these biases when determining what is a radical goal and what is not,” insists Robin Lamboll of the Center for Environmental Policy at Imperial College London, who participated in the study.
For researchers, this study provides a unique opportunity for governments to “robustly” assess the transformation of the energy system so that they can take corrective action if these targets do not sufficiently prevent the rise in temperatures.
Reference work: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-31734-1
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