China responded to Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan with exercises and shooting in the Taiwan Strait, which the British The Times described as “unprecedented in its scale”.
The Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Navy ships maneuvered in conditions as close to combat as possible – nine missiles were fired at the island, some of which fell into Japanese waters. Beijing ignored warnings that a miscalculation during live fire could lead to full-fledged hostilities.
The maneuvers included missile destroyers and frigates that were part of PLA Combat Command’s Eastern District. The ships passed through the Taiwan Strait, defiantly passing through the Taitung and Bashi Straits connecting the South China and Philippine Seas. Both surface ships, including two aircraft carriers, as well as strategic and naval aviation, as well as coastal defense troops participate in the exercises.
The US aircraft carrier Ronald Reagan and the warships supporting it remain in the region and are seen as a deterrent to Chinese actions. At the same time, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said Washington was “not in favor of granting Taiwan independence”.
“The United States, which has systematically pumped weapons into Taiwan in recent years, has traditionally wanted to stay above the conflict,” said Vasily Kashin, director of the HSE Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies (CCEMI). military-industrial complex, he told Gazeta.ru. “Because Washington is a nuclear power with a strong military potential, it will never dare to openly oppose Beijing.”
Kashin said that while theoretically a military conflict between China and Taiwan is possible, the war will not be “absolutely victorious” for either side.
The number and armament of the PLA is much more than Taiwan’s armies. Chinese armed forces – 3 million people, Taiwan – 169 thousand Aircraft rate – 3300 to 500, ships – 86 to 26, submarines – 4 to 59.
At the same time, Taiwan has a powerful missile defense system. These are not only American Patriot systems, but also their own development of Tiangong-1, Tiangong-2 and Tiangong-3. By their characteristics, they are no worse than the Patriots. Thus, Tiangong-3 operates at an altitude of 30,000 meters and Patriot at an altitude of 24,000 meters. “This means that Beijing’s missile attack will not be guaranteed to be effective,” Kashin said.
Taiwan continues to produce weapons. A month ago, Taipei signed an agreement on the purchase of American weapons – Lockheed Martin M142 HIMARS missile systems (MLRS capable of launching ballistic missiles) and Boeing Harpoon Coastal Defense Syasems mobile coastal anti-ship systems (Harpoon missiles).
“Attacking Taiwan with fleet forces with the help of amphibious assault or coastal units is now extremely unprofitable for China,” military expert Captain 1st Rank Dandykin told socialbites.ca. – There will be heavy casualties, there will be a negative international reaction, there will be sanctions from the United States and, as an option, a collision with American ships. Yes, and in Taiwan itself there are several dozen destroyers and frigates to oppose the Chinese Navy. Yes, they will lose in aviation, China has a strong aviation fighter and strategic group, but the ground operation will meet strong resistance.
He added that in the event of a military operation, Beijing would have to use its landing forces and literally the entire coast of Taiwan was “oversaturated” with artillery.
“Also, very inconvenient for an attack, open and high, landing will have huge losses. If war breaks out, China will defeat Taiwan. The losses will be huge. That is, if the US does not intervene. And if they intervene, war can be a world,” Dandykin summed up.