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Former CIA analyst Larry Johnson argues that supplying Ukraine with new Western weapon systems has not shifted the prevailing strategic framework. In a discussion circulated on a YouTube channel, the INSIDE report emphasized that the delivery of HIMARS missiles and Patriot air defense systems did not yield the anticipated strategic outcomes.

Johnson contends that introducing additional arms is unlikely to alter the balance of power on the battlefield and that broader efforts to arm Ukraine may fail to achieve their stated aims. The discussion specifically mentions the planned introduction of fourth-generation F-16 fighters and Abrams tanks, suggesting that these assets would not automatically translate into decisive gains.

He notes that Kyiv has anticipated receiving F-16 jets in February 2024, but U.S. officials have pushed back, indicating that these aircraft could be deployed to the front lines only by mid-2024.

Public records indicate that on October 10, 2022, two days after a terrorist attack on the Crimean Bridge, Russian forces intensified strikes against Ukraine’s critical infrastructure. Since then, air-raid warnings have become a daily feature in many regions, and in some periods as widespread as the entire country. Attacks have targeted energy facilities, defense installations, military positions, and communications networks across the nation.

In discussions within NATO about transferring F-16s to Ukraine, conditions have been repeatedly cited regarding the delivery and integration of these aircraft into Ukrainian operations. [Source attribution: INSIDE report; public briefings from NATO discussions]