this wholesale electricity prices It will be back Europe next winterSpecially In the United Kingdom, Germany and especially France, According to the IEA, Progress will be more moderate in SpainAlthough it will continue at historically high levels in 2023.
In a report on the electricity market released this Wednesday, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said, first results war in ukraine Because of its over-dependence on Europe About 30% of the gas it consumed in 2020, more than 20% of the oil and 12% of the coal came from Russia.
Prices according to the 100 base index referenced at the beginning of 2016 Now 10 times higher in France and Germany (1,000 points).
But if Russia is confirmed to have completely shut off the taps to Europe, the escalation will accelerate this winter amid fears of supply problems or a new gas surge.
The study’s authors predict that prices will triple in France (up to 3,000 points) by the end of the year, and nearly double to around 1,750 points in Germany.
They should fall in both countries by 2023 to become more expensive again in the first half of the year, but again in the second, to about 1,500 points, fifteen times the price at the beginning of 2016.
In the UK, the report estimates it will rise from the current 500 in the fourth quarter to around 1,250 before falling below the 750 threshold in the second half of next year.
Lack of transparency in the gas cap
In Spain, the evolution is significantly different, as a decline is observed from the peak of the first quarter of 2022.when prices reach 7.5 times their base 100 (index 750) at the beginning of 2016.
This decline, which fell below 500 points during the summer months, coincides with the launch of the new device with gas price cap on the Iberian market in June.
It’s a device that IEA experts warn about because they think it’s n.o Transparent enough: “The true costs of electricity cannot be fully seen, as gas plants have to be compensated.”
If no announcement is made at this point, they predict prices will rise from the end of 2022 and again in 2023, closing that year around 700 points, which would mean a megawatt hour seven times more expensive than at the start. 2016.
Gas and coal will become more expensive
Behind this tariff boom in Europe is the uncertainty about gas supplies from Russia, which has driven its prices to an all-time high in Europe, primarily at $107 per megawatt hour in the TTF reference market. Average price for the same period of the year for the 2017-2021 four-year period.
Coal, which is also used to generate electricity in the Old Continent, skyrocketed in the first half of the year, though not so much: an average of $281 per tonne, four times the same reference period 2017-2021.
And looking at the second half of the year, the study’s authors predict: Both gas (58%) and coal (20%) will continue to be more expensiveBefore a relative decrease of 7% (for gas) and 18% (for coal) in 2023.
Both coal and, above all, gas continue to dominate electricity generation in the European Union. They represented 16% and 19% respectively in 2021.