EU open to reactivation of most polluting energies due to gas shortage

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Every cubic meter of gas saved counts now because the less consumed this summer, the bigger energy bed to face the next cold season. In the European Commission’s contingency plan, it is the idea that the delegation of commissioners will adopt this Wednesday to “immediately” limit. gas consumption Avoid a more painful rationing in the European Union and in the winter before a possible rationing. Total supply cut from Russia It triggered alarms in the European continent. “The EU is currently in a vulnerable position in terms of gas supply security. The time has come to anticipate risks and proactively increase preparedness, in its final draft of communications where public authorities, consumers, households, owners of public buildings and energy providers are soliciting their participation.”

Community Manager is currently a voluntary reduction gas consumption – the document costs an X percent at the cost of final negotiation at the brokers college, but can range from 5% to 15% for “at least the next 8 months”. However, in the second phase and if the situation worsens in the coming weeks or months or leads to an emergency in at least two countries, the European Commission proposes to enact legislation. bind save. “In a first step, Member States have the possibility to voluntarily apply the necessary reductions”, but “implemented a binding target to reduce gas demand if the situation deteriorates and it becomes necessary to activate an EU alert according to the framework established in the emergency proposal”, Twenty-seven update national emergency plans and identify possible mitigation measures until the end of September.

organizations such as National Energy Agency The (IAEA) has already warned that the EU will have no choice but to reduce its consumption by 12,000 million cubic meters over the next three months. Only in this way will it have the capacity to continue to replenish underground deposits to reach 80% of its reserves by November, as determined by European legislation approved this year (90% from the winter of 2023). But only if giant Gazprom decides not to reopen the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline, which has been routinely technically shut down for maintenance for ten days and reduced gas flows between Russia and Germany by 60% last year, on July 21. In the first half of 2022, it will be impossible to reach the target by completely cutting off shipments.

Insufficient liquefied gas

Although diversification and liquefied natural gas imports From third countries (LNG) other than Russia, which has increased significantly this year thanks to deals with the US, Norway, Israel or Azerbaijan, those shipments will be insufficient to make up for it this Monday. Loss of Russian gas It is partially or fully affecting 12 EU countries, including Germany, the Netherlands, Poland or Finland, and predicts a “potentially tough winter” as there is “no reason” to think conditions will change, according to community technicians.

Moreover, in Brussels they put themselves in the worst possible scenario. “We base our winter contingency plans on the worst possible scenario. The worst possible scenario is a complete shutdown of Gazprom,” commission spokesman Eric Mamer said on Tuesday. said. As of 17 July, the level of stored gas in 18 European countries with such installations barely exceeds 64%, and simulations show it can range from “65 to 71%” at the start of the winter season.

In Bulgaria, one of the first countries where Moscow cut off its supply because it did not comply with Russia’s demands, Vladimir Putin and they pay in rubles, their deposits are 40%, in Croatia 43%, in Hungary 46% and in Latvia 48%. According to the latest inventory, meanwhile capacity is 100% in Portugal, 98% in Poland, almost 85% in Sweden, 83% in Denmark, 75% in the Czech Republic and 74% in Spain. available.

In light of the Russian threat – and even though the EU has managed to reduce its dependence on Russia from 40% to 20% – he predicts it will be a problem because the Russian tap shutting down could come “at any moment” and would affect some countries more. More than any other in their dependence on Russian imports, their ability to diversify in the short term, and the role of gas in their energy mix or industrial production. So anticipating this will be crucial because if we don’t act, the decline in Gross Domestic Product will be brutal. According to the International Monetary Fund, a complete shut-off of the tap could sink the economy by 3% or even 6% in Russia’s most dependent partners. According to Brussels, the economic impact will be between 0.6% and 1% of GDP and even greater in a “colder winter”, or the European economy could collapse between 0.9% and 1.5% if measures are not taken. .

Measures to be applied

Although both homes and key sectors such as hospitals or critical infrastructure are considered “protected customers” and should not be affected in the event of a power outage, the European Commission has air conditioning since this summer Y most heating in public buildings in winter. In the case of companies, Brussels argues they save money by changing the type of fuel they use and allowing countries to subsidize the change.

In addition, although this could lead to an increase in pollutant emissions, the European Commission also re-enable the use of coal plants Generating electricity as long as the measures to promote change are temporary and even prolong its life nuclear power plants. The plan also includes: Auctions to encourage savings measures to reduce consumption in non-critical production facilities, in exchange for compensation among industrial customers, and guidelines for twenty seven It’s about how to allocate gas in an emergency between different economic sectors and a mechanism to identify and mitigate the impact on cross-border supply chains.

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