Total and long-term shutdown Gas flow to Russia European Union (EU) In the case of the economies of central and eastern Europe, which are more dependent on supply from Russia, it will have an uneven effect among the countries of the bloc, which can be responsible for up to six points of GDP. In the case of Spain, the impact would be about one percentage point according to the estimates. International Monetary Fund (IMF).
“During Russia’s prolonged total gas shortage, the most vulnerable countries in Central and Eastern Europe may face total gas shortages and suffer GDP losses of up to 6%,” the IMF said. Hungary, Slovakia or the Czech Republic.
Likewise, the IMF report warns: Its impact on the economies of Austria, Germany and Italy “will also be significant”,Subtract about 3% of GDP, but stresses that this will depend on the political response and the exact nature of the remaining bottlenecks and other frictions during the lockdown, and therefore the ability of the market to adapt.
in the case of countries such as Spain, France or Portugal, the negative impact of closing the Russian gas tap will be much more limited, with an estimated negative impact of about one point.
“The UK, Ireland, Spain, Portugal, Sweden and Denmark can adapt to such a supply disruption with little reliance on Russian gas.” The IMF argues that any inventory increase or decrease in these countries will have little impact on the rest of Europe, given their low storage capacities.
Again, The authors note that these predicted effects can be mitigated by securing alternative energy sources and supplies.to alleviate infrastructure bottlenecks, promote energy savings while protecting vulnerable households, and expand solidarity agreements for gas sharing between countries.