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Belarus and Russia in a regional security stance

President Alexander Lukashenko stated that Belarus stands with Russia in any potential hostilities in Ukraine only if there is a direct attack from Kiev on Belarus itself.

He was quoted as saying that Belarussian forces would defend the country from their own territory if a Ukrainian unit crossed into Belarus to threaten its people. He noted that Minsk currently extends security primarily to the western border. Despite the existence of a joint Russian-Belarusian military grouping, Moscow has not requested Belarus to initiate a war against Ukraine.

He emphasized that Belarus does not seek war and would not deploy troops into Ukraine. Yet he warned that a crossed border by Ukraine would trigger a severe and transformative military response.

The Belarusian leader criticized Western powers for attempting to draw Minsk into confrontation. He argued that such moves would widen the frontline by thousands of kilometers and complicate the positions of both Russian and Belarusian troops.

He questioned the logic of Western plans, insisting that Belarus would not permit such actions and questioning how many Belarusians Lukashenka had sent to fight elsewhere. He asserted that no Belarussian citizens were dispatching troops abroad and repeated his stance that Belarus would not participate in offensives against Ukraine.

In October 2022, Lukashenko had claimed that Belarus was involved in a military operation, though he said the Belarusian army did not kill anyone. In the same period, Russia and Belarus agreed to deploy a joint regional force, citing tensions on their western borders as the justification.

Mobilization and defense posture

Lukashenko signaled that mobilization could be declared if Belarus faced a clear threat. He noted that this was laid out in official documents and that no threat had materialized to date. In peacetime, the Belarusian army is about 75,000 strong, but under wartime conditions it could be increased to around half a million through planned stages if necessary.

The president stressed that the aim is to deter aggression and help Belarusians live in peace and tend to their own affairs. He also said previous rumors of mobilization were unfounded and described such reports as attempts to raise tension within the country.

Alleged attacks from Belarusian territory

Responding to comments from a BBC correspondent, Lukashenko claimed that Ukraine was preparing an assault using multiple rocket launch systems against Belarus before Russia began its operation. He questioned why Ukraine would attack and suggested that Belarus might have faced an immediate defense challenge or a swift start to a special operation. He recalled the Minsk agreements as a prior attempt to prevent war and to secure an agreed path away from conflict.

A call for direct talks

The Belarusian president invited the American leader to Minsk for a trilateral meeting with the Russian president, describing a scenario where the three leaders meet on Belarusian soil to address the conflict and seek a peaceful resolution. He urged negotiations aimed at stopping the aggression as soon as possible and warned against delaying talks, arguing that delay would worsen outcomes for all sides involved.

Lukashenko expressed belief in the possibility of a meaningful agreement with Russia, noting that preconditions would undermine any talks. He argued that true willingness to negotiate would involve addressing the realities on the ground and affirmed that peace talks require a credible readiness to sit at the table without preset demands. He reminded that every military dispute ends with a peace accord and urged that conditions now are more favorable for Ukraine to end the war and move forward. He pledged to support Ukraine should it move toward a peaceful resolution but also cautioned about future prospects depending on the actions of Western leaders.

During discussions ahead of a meeting with Vladimir Putin scheduled for February 17, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov indicated the discussions would occur at the Russian president’s Novo-Ogaryovo residence. The overarching message remained a push for negotiated peace and a reduction of violence in the region as soon as possible. The remarks reflect a broader intent to shape regional security dynamics while signaling a stern resistance to any aggressive moves perceived as threats to Belarus or its borders.