There are no cracks in this multispectral diagnosis. The crisis in the Red Sea began to be felt days ago in Spanish companies engaged in trade.; Moreover, its impact, especially in the textile, electronics and automobile fields, will soon begin to be felt by the end customer; However, what was learned after the pandemic, the ship’s stranding in the Suez Canal and the war in Ukraine virtually eliminate the possibility of a stock breakdown similar to what occurred at that time. “The sectors most likely to be affected have worked hard to remedy this situation. emergency plans To respond to such problems,” resolves a first source from the distribution industry. “The industry has learned from previous situations,” agrees a second voice from the auto industry. “There has been a series of events critical sections This has made companies better prepared: they now have larger safety stocks,” emphasizes a third analyst, this transportation expert.
None of it hides the fact that the time it takes for some goods to arrive from Asia is now increasing. 5 to 21 daysHe stated that the price they paid was much higher and that if this situation continued for a long time, there would be no other option. transfer to final price. While there is not extreme concern at the moment, there is also a fear of what might happen if the crisis worsens.
Essentially, the problem dates back to the end of last year, when Yemen’s Houthi movement began attacking and hijacking ships in the Red Sea, apparently targeting ships tied to Israel in some way. The point is that this One of the most important ways of international trade (40% of trade moves between Asia and Europe, according to financial services and analytics group Nomura), the majority of shipping companies have decided to preemptively opt for: alternative circuits.
“They are now using a longer route to get to Europe, meaning going down to South Africa and going up the Iberian Peninsula along the African border, which has massively disrupted all companies’ plans in terms of the supply chain because the goods arrive all at once before and now There are delays“, contextualizes Javier Jaso, head of transport at Aecoc, the association of consumer products manufacturers and distributors. “This has a significant economic impact, because it is a longer route. More fuel consumption, more insecurity…there has been an exponential increase in maritime transport prices for this reason,” notes this expert.
Jaso specifically mentions that there has been a 60 percent increase in prices in the last three weeks; This included insurers’ concerns about their ability to cover certain goods, or given the slightest possibility that there might be a product shortage, companies decided to pre-emptively increase order volume, pushing ships’ capacity to the limits and encouraging a system based on whoever pays the most goes first. Credit insurance company Crédito y Caución talks about a 300% increase in the cost of sea transportation.
Possible price increases
To the best of this Aecoc spokesperson’s knowledge (and confirming two other sources consulted) the companies Assuming this increase in price without transferring it to the final priceHe is aware that there is a high probability that the customer will not tolerate another price increase. “It will all depend on how long it takes for this situation to be resolved: if this continues for a long time, it is possible that some of this extra expense that companies assume guarantees supply will be passed on to the end customer.” He guesses Jaso.
“The fear, joined by ANGED, the National Association of Major Distribution Companies, is that this will continue for a long time: The most serious impact will be seen if this crisis continues for a long time or deepens.”.
Impact on Volvo, Michelin or Ikea
Currently, a recent analysis from Nomura assures: “Upside risks for inflation” In the medium term, at the European level, we are faced with September, between 1 and 2 tenths. In their report, they cite Tesla’s decision to suspend the majority of car production at its Berlin factory until mid-February, Volvo pausing operations at its Belgian factory for a few days, and Michelin’s recent car production halt as examples. Operations at four of its factories in Spain were suspended over the weekend due to delays in the arrival of certain materials or because Ikea notified the Netherlands. possible delays in delivery of goods.
The latest Crédito y Caución report analyzes: “Changes to longer and less secure supply chains are likely to cause product shortages in some sectors.” “European manufacturers import a wide range of intermediate goods from Asia-Pacific, such as electrical equipment, high-tech products, rubber and plastic, chemicals and machinery“, they elaborate. Javier Jaso from AECOC adds the textile sector to this list, not only in terms of finished products but also in terms of raw materials.
“Anyone ordering an Asian-branded car will have to wait three weeks longer than expected, but the same goes for an iPhone or a Samsung or LG television made in China,” says an industry insider. .