Airport Amsterdam (Schiphol), one of the international aviation centers, is not planning to expand but is also planning to shrink. Why: Aviation can only play its part in keeping climate change at bay if it reduces the number of flights within this decade. Technological advances such as sustainable fuels can help, but they are not enough.
This is according to a report the airport released last week. This document quantifies the scarce carbon budget that needs to be released to avoid contributing to triggering warming above 1.5 degrees Celsius, the threshold set by the Paris Agreement to avoid the worst effects of climate change.
In order not to exceed this threshold, Schiphol Reduce CO2 emissions by 32% by 2030. 20% can be reached with technological and organizational improvements. However, the remaining 12% can only be achieved through “demand management”. reduction of flights.
“The aviation industry prefers not to ask how much aviation is allowed. But the airport is state-owned and should benefit Dutch society. What is the optimal number of flights for this society?” asks Stefan Grebe, head of aviation at consulting firm CE Delft, which participated in the report. “We asked ourselves How does Schiphol fit into a world compatible with Paris goals?” says Bram Peerlings, a sustainable aviation researcher at the Netherlands Aerospace Center and also a co-author of the report.
Noise and nitrogen
Two years ago the Dutch government proposed reducing the number of flights at Schiphol from 500,000 to 440,000. The main motivations are the airport does not comply with legal limits on noise and nitrogen emissions.
The airport’s neighbors and the powerful Dutch livestock movement (which faces the threat of having to shoulder some of the nitrogen cut from its animals’ emissions) have put enough pressure on a right-wing, pro-business government to embrace the cause of degrowth.
Neighborhood organizations increased complaints. “There afraid of him airport lose work permit“If they reach the European courts,” explains Grebe. In addition, reducing noise from the airport would allow construction around it, something highly coveted in a country suffering from a major housing shortage.
“Transit passengers do not contribute much to the Dutch economy. Considering the emission cost, it appears that 30% of flights have a negative economic impact. “Flights can be reduced without harming the economy,” says Paul Peeters, professor of sustainable tourism at the University of Breda, who was not involved in the report.
For now, the government’s mitigation plan has been blocked by the European Union, and airport management has described it as a disappointment. “We don’t want any planes to take off from midnight to six in the morning. Private jets and loud planes are not welcome”says airport spokesman Hans van Kastel.
CO2 elephant
The elephant in the room in the Dutch debate is CO2 emissions from aviation, the main gas responsible for climate change. The new Schiphol report tackles the issue fearlessly. The study is based on the amount of carbon humanity has given up to comply with the Paris Agreement: 500 gigatonnes between 2020 and 2050, with a 50% chance of preventing warming from exceeding 1.5 degrees, according to the Intergovernmental Panel’s calculations. Climate Change (IPCC).
From this amount, The report attributes 3.9% to aviation, according to an International Energy Agency estimate. Currently aviation represents 2.4% of emissions, but will represent more because it is one of the most difficult sectors to decarbonise. The next step is to distribute this 3.9 percent to airports around the world. The researchers respect current emissions corrected for a factor associated with the predictable increase in emissions from flights in Asia and Africa.
“We must act quickly to reduce emissions over the next decade to meet Schiphol’s remaining ‘carbon budget’. Otherwise, more drastic measures will need to be taken later. The only immediate solution is to reduce flights. Efficiency and sustainable fuels will arrive too late,” says Grebe. Numerically speaking, Schiphol needs to reduce its emissions by at least 12% by reducing flights in 2030. There is no way to eliminate them in any other way.
How does an airport shrink?
A 12% reduction in emissions does not necessarily mean 12% fewer flights. At Schiphol, 80% of emissions come from 20% of long-haul flights. “If you cut these, Flight reduction can be as small as 3%. Conversely, if you cut short-haul flights you will have to cut even more,” explains Peerlings.
The Center accompanied the study by demanding strong measures such as taxes proportional to flight length, taxes on kerosene and special flights, among others. “It is important that those who pollute the environment pay the price“, states the airport press release.
The aviation industry has committed to achieving zero emissions by 2050. “One of the most important messages from our study is that this is not enough. The path you take to get there is also very important,” Peerlings concludes.