— At the Davos Forum, WHO chief Tedros Ghebreyesus talked about the possibility of a pandemic caused by “disease X.” He emphasized that this is not a specific disease, but a hypothetical disease for which the whole world should be prepared. What was this performance for?
— The head of the WHO has the right to make such a speech. First, there have been many epidemics in human history, and there will definitely be another one someday. Secondly, the virus can be produced or developed by humans, as this possibility has increased with the development of synthetic biology today. Thirdly, after the coronavirus pandemic, a lot of negativity was expressed towards the WHO, because in fact the organization did not become a center of coordination and rapid response to the disease. But you have to find money from somewhere. So Ghebreyesus attaches importance to finance. Moreover, if the next epidemic comes, you can always say “we warned you.”
– Imagine a very deadly “disease X”. What will cause this? Bacteria? Mushroom? Virus?
“It could potentially be a bacteria or a fungus.” Even some protozoa can cause it. But if you weigh the odds, it will most likely be a virus.
First, the virus is much easier to create using synthetic biology. So the role of the man-made component in this case really increases.
Second, we have more or less learned to create broad-spectrum antibiotics that are effective against bacteria. In some countries, in case of complete antibiotic resistance, a reserve antibiotic is specially reserved, which is not used at all and can cope even with superbugs. Additionally, antibiotics can be combined.
— Is the situation the same for fungi and bacteria?
“Even our immune system copes very well with these. As a rule, superbugs originating from fungi do not exist. And as far as I remember, there have never been cases in human history where a fungal infection caused a pandemic. There were problems, small outbreaks in individual hospitals, but nothing else.
After all, producing some kind of man-made super pathogen from a fungus is no trivial task. A virus is the simplest system in terms of engineering.
— Do we know more about bacteria than viruses at this stage of the development of science?
– Yes. We may not know anything about most viruses, which is why they are actively researched. What does it mean? In some laboratories, for example in China or America, they now defrost the next sample collected during a regular expedition and start working with it. To study this, an in vitro cell culture is normally selected from which subcultures will be created. Let’s say these are cells of other animals (dogs, primates) but not human cells. At a certain stage, when it becomes known that the virus also replicates in the cells of other animals, the question will arise: “Can this virus still infect human cells?” The head of the laboratory will then ask the laboratory assistant to test these viruses on human cell cultures.
– And here is the moment when the virus does not meet human cells in the wild, but this happens in the laboratory?
– Absolutely right. And the scientist will most likely receive a negative answer: This virus does not infect human cells. But then the talented head of the laboratory or the director of the institute will ask: “Maybe some kind of mutation is needed in a particular gene?” And here is a very realistic scenario for the coronavirus epidemic that the World Health Organization thinks is over.
— According to your estimate, how many laboratories in the world can carry out such studies?
— Hundreds of them in the developed countries of the Western and Eastern world. We meet these scientists at virology conferences, and they come with reports.
— If we list the viruses according to the examples we currently know, which of them claims to be the “cause of the next epidemic”?
“It is unlikely that we will discover another new virus family, so we can choose from existing ones. It is clear that this must most likely be a mammalian or avian virus. It is unlikely that a virus from any reptile or fish will “jump” into a person. The further away from us along the evolutionary branch, the less likely this becomes.
– So why does bird flu infect us easily?
– Actually, it’s not that easy. Until now, a person infected with bird flu could not transmit the disease to anyone else. So far, there is not a single confirmed case in the last 10-20 years of infected people further transmitting the virus.
Bird flu can only infect humans after reaching the lungs. This requires very high concentrations of the virus, which can only be found on a poultry farm during an avian flu epidemic. A person who is initially infected cannot produce a sufficiently effective virus in sufficient concentrations in their lungs for the infection to begin to spread further among people.
— Is bird flu at the top of the list of possible causative agents of “disease X”?
“Experts understand the power behind bird flu, so utmost care needs to be taken in this regard. For example, it is actively monitored, which was not done for coronaviruses, which were not considered very dangerous pathogens before the pandemic. That is why they worked with coronaviruses at a light safety level, which is a prerequisite for a viral escape.” created.
Of course, no one works like that with bird flu. Everyone understands very well that bird flu is a potential biological weapon. Therefore, if there was no concern about this issue, I would put bird flu first. Still, it seems to me that the virus of the next epidemic should be invisible to experts right now.
— Could the laboratories you mentioned add the five conditional mutations that would help bird flu transmit more efficiently between humans?
“We already know a lot, and it’s relatively easy for scientists to do this.”
— Is it easy at this stage of scientific development to make a flu virus that will kill all of humanity?
— It’s not easy, but virologists roughly know how to do it. It is now clear that we need to take, for example, a completely new virus that lives only in birds and make all the necessary changes with it. The result will be a pathogen that the human immune system has never seen before and has never been used in vaccines. Therefore, we are not protected from this.
So why isn’t the dangerous flu virus so scary? Because we can develop a vaccine against this disease very quickly. For example, we currently have a new flu virus in February, and in August we already have a vaccine against it. So there’s less than six months left. It’s fast, which means we can do it even faster. So in this case the situation is arranged.
— Is it possible to produce such a virus “in the garage”?
– Still no. The highest qualifications and equipment are required. Moreover, such a terrorist needs to protect himself, and this is not a trivial task. We need a high-level laboratory.
—Can you describe a virus that can destroy all humanity? What qualifications should he have?
— First of all, it must be an airborne respiratory virus. Secondly, it must be a very slow virus, something that is detected very slowly, like HIV infection.
That is, the person has been infected for a long time, transmits this pathogen to others, but does not feel sick. This asymptomatic period lasts quite a long time. And such a virus will kill, but its effect will be delayed.
— Recently, there was news that a 100% lethal virus was created in China. Could it cause a deadly epidemic?
— Mortality is just one of the criteria. If the virus manifests itself and kills immediately, it will not have time to spread across the planet.
— Are respiratory viruses with a long incubation period found in nature?
— This does not usually occur in respiratory patients. But in principle such things could be created hypothetically.
— So do we actually need a hybrid of flu and HIV?
– No need for hybrid. The viral system evolves very quickly and can be forced to evolve in the desired direction by applying certain selection conditions. Modern bioinformatics capabilities make it possible to calculate the direction. So you can really speed up the process by having a rough understanding of what you want to do.
There is also the phenomenon of virus interaction. Often a virus can significantly worsen the condition of a person who has previously been infected with another virus. For example, an article was recently published in Nature talking about children with acute hepatitis. It turns out that a herpes virus or an adenovirus, which normally does not cause hepatitis on its own, can act on the liver when interacting with an adeno-associated virus of the second type, so that liver cells – hepatocytes – begin to die. This triggers an immune response. The immune system begins to fight the viral infection and destroys the liver. This leads to at least hepatitis and often death. According to the World Health Organization, 1,010 similar cases have been reported in 35 countries.
— You have identified a potential pathogen that will cause the next epidemic. You have already said that bird flu fits this definition, but awareness about this virus is quite high, so it is not likely to be so. So which virus is the number one contender?
– Inconspicuous. It is an issue that does not currently pose a problem for humanity, but is also being studied in laboratories. The funny thing is that after Tedros Ghebreyesus’ speech, many laboratories will receive X grants to study the potential causative agent of “X disease”. A future epidemic could be triggered this way.