“I won’t go back to the south” could have been heard in any city in northern Spain this summer. Thousands of tourists, who usually gathered on the Andalusian beaches in the early hours of the morning, preferred to escape from the extreme heat and enjoy their holidays in Galicia, Asturias or the Basque Country. Although the effects of climate change on the tourism industry have been studied for three decades, 2023 is the first year its results are widely seen: Water shortages, record temperatures, heavy rains and successive heat waves to ease drought. “Spain is exposed to physical risks from climate change due to the significant predominance of sun and beach segments, which increases the climate dependence of the tourism sector, and the negative externalities caused by saturation in some destinations.” On the same Monday, I remembered Pablo Hernández de Cos, Governor of the Bank of Spain. The Spanish ‘golden egg-laying goose’ is endangered due to rising temperatures, affecting parts of the country differently. While they see the number of tourists decreasing in the south and the Levant, they fear the new overcrowding they are not accustomed to in the north. In any case, the effect will be general. According to the study “Climate change regional report on European tourism demand”, prepared by a group of scientists from the Joint Research Center of the European Union (JRC), in the scenario of temperatures increasing by 3 to 4 degrees Celsius in Spain would suffer Tourist demand decreased by nearly 10% in July and Augustfavorite months for rest.
Although on a general level climate change will affect the entire region, the south of Spain is one of the most vulnerable regions in Europe. According to JRC’s estimates, There will be a decrease of more than 5% in the number of tourists coming to the Region of Murcia and the Balearic Islands for the whole year In an extreme scenario, the temperature increases by four degrees. Heat waves are also associated with reduced tourist spending. For each degree above the historical daily average in July and August, spending at restaurants will decrease by 0.16 percent, entertainment spending will decrease by 0.34 percent in consumption, and supermarkets by 0.13 percent. Calculations by CaixaBank Research economist David Cesar Heymann. In the long run, these are figures that will affect the country’s GDP. Previous JRC studies show that: Decrease of this indicator by approximately 0.6% or 0.7% due to the decrease in tourist incomeThis is a much higher figure than simulated for Europe (0.2%). According to the latest data from the National Institute of Statistics, tourism will account for 11.6% of GDP in 2022, an increase of approximately 3.9 points compared to the previous year. Based on this data, has the Spanish tourism industry adapted to climate change?
Diego Santos, tourism expert and professor at EAE Business School, answers the previous question with a resounding “no”, but then frames his answer: “Adaptation is not easy, but Spanish tourism has been and will be resilient so far. It depends on its infrastructure and destinations.” adapting to what is to come.Of course, there are things that cannot be overcome. heat wave They are one Big problem for southern coastal cities and their solutions sometimes create new challenges. This is the case when indoor activities are held to avoid high temperatures that cause greater energy consumption. There are various risks to consider. The increase in temperature and water scarcity limit the arrival of tourists to certain destinations, but at the same time The occurrence of extreme weather events causes rejectionLoss of attractiveness of certain activities such as diving, loss of beaches and snow quality, or increase in biodiversity such as increased numbers of jellyfish or mosquitoes that disturb holidaymakers. At the same time, a direct result is “the loss of climate comfort, which leads them to travel to other places and in other periods,” says Raquel Santos, senior tourism advisor at Fi Group.
In particular, the transition to an emissions-free economy will pose a challenge for air transport, which accounts for 40% of total greenhouse gas emissions from tourism activities42, which in turn poses a challenge because the bulk of our international tourism – around 80% – is accessed by air. Spain is also exposed to physical risks43, which are further accentuated by the significant weight of the sun and beach industry,44 which increases the climate dependence of the tourism sector, and by the negative externalities45 caused by saturation in some destinations.
north and south
If the south and the islands are most affected by climate change, Cantabria, Asturias and Galicia will be the ‘winning’ regions. In them, overnight stays will increase by 7.2%, 4.2% and up to 3.2%According to the JRC report, respectively. Experts predict that in a 4-degree global warming scenario, the desert and semi-arid climate will spread to the eastern half of the Peninsula, while the Mediterranean climate will move northward and cover most of the Cantabrian coast. Although this seems like good news for autonomous communities, it is also a problem for them. For the north, this summer meant a ‘deadlock’: overcrowding exceeded the expectations of municipal governments. At the same time, the loss of tourists in the local economies in the south, where tourism generates the majority of their income, will also affect employment in the region.
Despite the bad omens, experts They are hopeful about harmony tourism Spanish. “Destinations most dependent on beach and snow tourism will be the most vulnerable,” says Fi Group’s senior advisor, but confirms that “all destinations are adapting”, all that is needed is the will to accelerate the process. “There are opportunities for everyone“Tourism does not have to be the main axis of all municipalities,” adds the EAE Business School professor. Ultimately, it is a matter of finding the perfect niche. For example, Benidorm and other destinations in the Levante, Canary Islands, Spain, which are frequented by tourists every month and outside the summer period. has become the capital of digital nomads. Regions need to be more flexible due to the impact of climate change and other social changes, such as the increase of older people with good quality of life or four-day workdays allowing for short weekend getaways. “You need to plan and know each destination, be alert “You shouldn’t pass,” he adds.