Valencian economy It will not be able to emerge unscathed from the recent deterioration in economic activities in the Eurozone. This is what he claims BBVA Research In a report published today, announcing a downward change in its forecasts on the development of the autonomies, the financial institution’s labor service was in line with the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the Valencian Community announced last October. At 1.9% (one-tenth above the Spanish average), if forecasts are met it will grow by 1.5%, in line with the country as a whole.
Therefore, the new estimate indicates a decrease of four tenths. The downward shift is not specific to the Valencian Community. In fact, compared to last October, only the Canary Islands improved their situation with an increase of two tenths and the Balearic Islands by one. At the other end of the scale, the worst-off regions are Navarra, down seven-tenths (to 1.5%) in forecasts, and Castilla y León, Cantabria and Catalonia, down four-tenths in all three cases. GDP will now grow by 1.7%, 1.6% and 1.4% respectively.
Factors
BBVA Research assures that overall the “main factor” of this review is “It is the recent deterioration of activities in the euro area” but he also adds the impact on the sector of high energy costs and “uncertainty regarding economic policy” that may increase in the coming months. Conflicts grow in the Middle East and problems with shipping, especially through the Suez Canal. Of course, the difficulties experienced by some rivals, especially due to the war between Israel and Gaza, can have a positive impact on the most touristic autonomies, such as the above-mentioned archipelago.
However, the outlook for 2025 is quite optimistic. BBVA Research expects “a general acceleration in activity due to improvement in domestic consumption and European demand”“. The two autonomous recipients of national tourism (Comunitat Valenciana and Catalonia) and the industrial and exporting countries that have made the least progress so far: Navarra and the Basque Country will lead this progress. All four will have an increase in GDP of 2.7%. The improvement in forecasts is more noticeable in the first two cases, given that they exceed 1.3 points.
2023 closing
In the case of Valencia, these good omens continue for the year that has already ended. Thus, the BBVA research service places this autonomy in the second largest improvement according to initial calculations. Especially wins two out of ten and Will reach 2.2% GDP growth in 2023. Only Murcia is in a better position, with an increase of three tenths and 2.2%. In both cases, the explanation for this improvement is the “strength shown in the engagement data” and therefore the increase in the number of employees.