Even in the unlikely event that global warming stops completely, the volume of ice on Earth european alps It will decrease by 34% between now and 2050, that is, in just 26 years. Now, if the increase in temperatures continues at the rate of the last twenty years, then This ice reduction will be 50%.
This prediction was obtained thanks to the use of a new computer model developed by scientists from the Faculty of Earth Sciences and Environment (UNIL) of the University of Lausanne in Switzerland, in collaboration with the University of Grenoble, ETHZ and the University of Zurich. .
In the most optimistic and unlikely scenario, where warming stops in 2022, Alpine glaciers will continue to suffer heavy losses due to global warming. inertia driving the climate-glacier system.
However, this prediction is far from a realistic future scenario, as greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase worldwide.
In fact, more than half of the ice volume will disappear
Another, more realistic estimate offered by the study shows that if there is no significant improvement in the global evolution of temperatures and the melting trend of the last 20 years continues, almost half (46%) of the ice volume in the Alps will be lost. It will disappear by 2050. But If we extrapolate only the data of the last decade, this figure may even rise to 65%.
Unlike traditional models that make predictions for the end of the century, the new study Geophysical Research LettersBy taking into account a shorter time frame, it makes it easier to see the magnitude of the changes ahead and therefore serves to encourage governments to take immediate action.
These predictions are especially important because miles and miles of ice disappear This will have serious consequences on the population, infrastructure and water reserves.
Data that could actually be worse
“Data used to create Stages stopped in 2022; This year, it was followed by an exceptionally hot summer. So the situation will probably be even worse than what we presented,” says Samuel Cook, UNIL researcher and first author of the study.
Realized using simulations artificial intelligence algorithms. Scientists used deep learning methods to train their model to understand physics concepts and fed it with real climate and glaciology data.
“Machine learning is revolutionizing the integration of complex data into our models. This important step, previously notoriously complex and computationally expensive, now becomes more precise and efficient,” explains FGSE professor and co-author Guillaume Jouvet. to work.
Reference work: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2023GL105029
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