Just one of the predicted effects of climate change, such as rising sea levels, Loss of nearly 50 billion euros in Spain At the end of the century (a 0.88% decline in Gross Domestic Product (GDP, estimated)) the hardest hit communities were Galicia, Cantabria and the Basque Country.
This was revealed in a study published in the journal Thursday. Scientific ReportIt analyzes the economic impact of sea level rise in EU countries and the UK in a context where climate change adaptation and mitigation measures are no more ambitious than those currently in place.
The models used calculate the loss of GDP for the entire EU and the UK at the end of the century to be 1.26% (estimated at €871.8 billion).
Most affected
The authors calculate that the autonomous community will lose the most GDP due to sea level rise. Cantabria (3.82%), followed by Galicia and the Basque Country (2.89% in both cases), the Canary Islands (1.83%), Asturias (1.54%) and the Valencian Community (1.19%) It does.
The sectors most affected by the sea level rise, which ranged between 1.08 and 1.20 meters compared to 1995, will be:logistics, transportation, agriculture, construction, utilities, materials (water, electricity, etc.) and their associated industrial sectors.
One of the authors, researcher Ignasi Cortés from the University of Delft in the Netherlands, detailed in an interview with Efe that the effects of rising sea levels were calculated taking into account areas far from the coast. 44% of Europe’s population lives here.
‘Winning’ regions
The research also emphasizes that There will be regions that will benefit from this movement inland of economic activity Due to coastal impacts.
In the case of Spain, Extremadura will increase GDP by 0.32%, Castilla La Mancha by 0.19% and Castilla y León by 0.15% by the end of the century due to the ‘displacement’ of this coastal economy.
The Community of Madrid, Aragon, La Rioja or Navarra will also benefit from this trend.
Despite everything, Spain will not be among the European countries worst economically affected by sea level rise, According to this study, Italy, Poland or Greece are among the countries that will be most affected if stronger adaptation measures than the current ones are not taken.
Specifically, Italy’s Veneto and Emilia-Romagna regions or Poland’s West Pomerania region will bear the burden, with losses of up to 21% of GDP in 2100.
On the contrary, regions in the interior of Germany, Austria or Hungary will experience increases in regional GDP of up to 1% due to the shift of economic activities to the interior.
Adaptation is very important
Emphasizing that adaptation is essential, Cortés gives the following fact as an example: Despite the sensitivity of its coasts, the Netherlands is one of the countries with the least negative impactDue to robust coastal protection systems.
The Spanish researcher emphasizes that the study model only takes into account the impact of sea level rise and does not take into account other events that are increasing in severity and frequency as a result of climate change. floods, droughts or fires etc.
Cortés also underscores the need for region-specific economic policies to address the unequal effects of sea level rise on different regions and their economies.
The researchers combined their economic models with the expected impacts of sea level rise, investment trends and the distribution of economic losses from 155 floods across Europe between 1995 and 2016 to reach their conclusions.
They also calculated possible economic losses and gains based on a scenario with no sea level rise and 2% annual economic growth in all regions.