uncertainty who became the judge Economic Outlook last year will also be preserved in the current period 2024Although the worst predictions about inflation did not come true. tighter financial conditions And geopolitical tensions to guess weakening of the world economy throughout this year, especially Europeaccording to more fifty chief economists from around the world in a survey conducted by World Economic Forum.
“The latest predictions of chief economists, unstable nature “the state of the current economic environment,” the director general of the World Economic Forum said in a statement. Saadia ZahediFrom this Monday to Friday the 19th, we will host more than 2,800 political, economic, business, scientific and social leaders from 120 countries in the Swiss town of Davos to discuss how to solve this issue. Adapting the capitalist model against global challenges.
Chief economists of Spanish banks participated in the research, which was conducted between November and December last year. BBVA and Santander, Juan Cerruti and Jorge Siciliaand representatives of a wide range of large companies Trafigura, Google, Equinor, Adecco, Spotify, Deloitte or Saudi Aramcoamong others. more than half 56% of these are part of the global economy will weaken this yearMeanwhile he 43 percent expect it to remain unchanged. Additionally, most say that labor markets (77%) and financial conditions (70%) will relax throughout the next year.
“Amidst increasing divisions, Durability The world economy will continue to be testing throughout the next year. Although global inflation continues to fall growth stopsFinancial conditions remain tight, global tensions deepen and inequalities widen; global cooperation “Creating momentum for sustainable and inclusive economic growth,” he adds.
It is not expected to be so no zone experience very strong growth in 2024 but Europe gets the worst partThe war in Ukraine is causing energy prices to skyrocket, and with it inflation, and it seems Conflict between Israel and Gaza can mean one new slip economic situation that ultimately did not materialize. Overall, the percentage of respondents with an expectation poor or very poor growth Nearly doubled this year 77% Data from the previous survey, September 2023.
Inside United States, Middle East and North AfricaThe outlook is also weakening. Latin America and the Caribbean, Sub-Saharan Africa and Central Asia There’s a “notable rise” in expectations, but sentiment remains unchanged moderate overall growth. There is better sentiment in Asia and the Pacific, with a large majority (93% and 86% respectively) expecting a recovery. At least moderate growth in 2024, Excluding China, a smaller majority (69%) said “weak consumption, lower industrial production and housing market concerns weigh on expectations for a stronger recovery.”
North-South Division
Nearly seven in ten chief economists predict the pace of growth will increase geoeconomic fragmentation will accelerate this year and the majority say: Geopolitics will increase volatility in the global economy (87%) and stock exchanges (80%), increase localization (86%), strengthen geoeconomics (80%) and North-South division (57%) within the next three years.
“As governments increasingly experiment with industrial policy tools, experts almost agree that these policies will remain largely uncoordinated across countries,” the report explains. yes ok two-thirds of chief economists they hope industrial policies let it emerge new sources of economic growth and vital new industriesMajorities also warn of rising fiscal tensions (79%) and the gap between high- and low-income economies (66%).
The positive note of this year’s report is Artificial intelligence (AI) is a technology that 50% of economists predict will become “disruptive” by the end of 2024. accessibility and versatility “Artificial intelligence not only has a broad impact on all sectors of the economy, but also points to a possibly faster implementation than past technological developments,” says Barclays’ head of economic research: Christian Keller. “This could help developed economies offset labor shortages and developing economies increase the productivity and income levels of their workers.”