Official statistics are awaited from the Ministry of Housing and the National Institute of Statistics.grids and real estate portals Already have published its reports How much did house prices increase in Spain last year? According to Tinsa, houses will be revalued by an average of 4.1 percent in 2023, while Gesvalt reduces this by half to 2.1 percent. While Idealista increases this figure to 8.15 percent, Fotocasa reduces it to 7.4 percent.
The consensus of the entire market is that after strong increases in 2021 and 2022, the market stabilization phase and low or normalized growth based on historical series. In recent months, there has been a slowdown in the increases and it is slowly heading towards zero.
Despite national statistics The housing market in Spain is detailed and responds to different realitiesSuch as the touristic component of the location, business dynamism or the size of the city. For example, home prices in coastal areas slowed more slowly last year than the national average; Cities such as Valencia, Almería, Santa Cruz de Tenerife and Málaga led the increases.
What will happen in 2024?
In general, the forecasts of the experts consulted are positive. “The inability of housing supply to meet the concentration of demand in the short term in employment centers and regions where economic activity is concentrated creates a tension that maintains price levels even if demand decreases. This situation is moderate.” Tinsa Research Director Cristina Arias adds: “market segments Buyer profile with high purchasing powersuch as new construction or a vacation home” more durable.
José Antonio Muro, managing director of Grupo Tecnitasa, explains: “Depending on the location, there is no doubt that We identify areas where demand is very strong and areas where demand is very weak. As an example, focusing on new construction, we can show notable differences between regions where the pressure on the new construction market is very high, such as Madrid, Malaga or San Sebastián, and inland regions such as some provinces of Castilla. La Mancha, Castilla y León or Extremadura.
Along the same lines, Judit Montoriol, chief economist at CaixaBank Research, notes: “The consolidation of tourism and increasing urbanization, which will continue to draw populations to tourist areas and the most dynamic cities, suggest that these markets will continue to grow on the upside.” Fotocasa spokesperson María Matos said:There will be decreases in less populated areas and inside, Like Extremadura or Castilla La-Mancha“.
On the opposite side, at least in part, Germán Pérez Barrio, president of UVE Valoraciones, believes that major cities, e.g. Madrid, barcelona, Seville, Zaragoza And Basque Country“Characterized by having buyers with high rates of mortgages”There is a high probability that prices will remain stable or decreasehe said. An increase is predicted on the coast. “The majority of purchases here are made in cash and the increase in interest rates does not affect the purchasing capacity, which is predominantly foreign. Prices will almost certainly increase in Malaga, Alicante, Girona, the Balearic Islands or the Canary Islands,” he adds. In cities with large urban and tourist components, such as Valencia, Murcia, Granada or Castellón, their development will be intermediate between the two previous classes. Finally, it envisages that: Prices will also remain the same or fall in the rest of Spain due to “an excess of empty houses”.
Juan Galo-Macià, CEO of Engel & Völkers in Spain, underlines a trend that will be reinforced next year: “It will continue to be a trend. Shifting the population to regions where prices are more competitiveBoth around major cities and in smaller urban areas. “This phenomenon will be uniform throughout Spain and will prove a double movement: first towards individual homes a few kilometers from the centre, and second towards more affordable neighborhoods within the cities themselves.”