Probably elections this saturday Taiwan They were condemned that night in late November in the most noble room of the Grand Hyatt Hotel. The three dissidents appeared poised to drive the Democratic Progressive Party (PDP) from power after eight years. They wanted a coalition but didn’t know how to achieve it. The event was broadcast live at the request of the main formation, the Kuomintang (KMT), which saw it as a springboard for the Government. There was only shame: insults, shouted accusations, disclosure of private messages… Everyone understood that they could not go together, that they could not inherit. The plan was dead after an hour and a half, and even respected former president Ma Ying-jeou could not revive it.
Its atomization lubricates the victory of the ruling party, yet Two-thirds of Taiwanese long for change. The latest poll shows current vice president Lai Ching-te’s PDP with 32% of the vote. It is followed by Hou Yu-ih’s KMT with 27% and newcomer Ko Wen-je’s Taiwan People’s Party (PPT), which broke the traditional two-party system, with 21%. Billionaire Terry Gou retired after that fateful night.
The KMT, which is closer to Beijing, and the PDP, which has independence roots, have alternated presidency since the first elections in 1996. The balance between economy and identity determines the results. The KMT’s over-alignment with Beijing has triggered protests over suspicions that a Trojan horse has emerged behind economic ties, while the Taiwanese have expelled independence supporters from the Government out of concern only to anger China. Efforts to refine their messaging in this election continue. “Democracy or dictatorship“, suggests PDP; KMT is given a “war or peace” response. PPT oscillates between “confrontation” by some and “surrender” by others, and offers hope Dialogue with Beijing and at the same time he strengthening military defense.
legal limit
Two lines converged at the same point from opposite beginnings. Both now defend the status quo, in other words the legal limbo in which Taiwan has remained for decades: an independent country in fact, but not in law. The PDP believes that the formal declaration of independence, which Beijing has threatened to punish, is unnecessary because it has already implemented it. But the choice of one or the other will affect the temperature of the Formosa Strait. Harmony flowed throughout Ma Ying-jeou’s tenure, which was sealed at a historic presidential summit. The independents’ election victory in 2016 ended the dialogue. Beijing advises Taiwanese to make ‘right decision’ and he didn’t need to specify what it was.
“The expectation is that the PDP will win but lose its parliamentary majority. China will have two instruments of influence: domestic power and the possibility of a legislative blockade. While this is not an ideal situation for Beijing, it is slightly more positive than the previous situation. The lack of dialogue will continue, but it will be more aggressive I do not foresee actions because Chinese they have internal priorities“says Xulio Ríos, a leading sinologist.
Among KMT voters, there are many older, pragmatic and conservative voters with emotional ties to China; PDP, on the other hand, is gaining victory among young people who grew up independently and liberals. It’s a fairly simple plan that ignores many nuances and variables, but is supported by visits to the candidates’ headquarters. After the KMT, some low-rise houses of old Taipei feature strongly in the Banqiao area. A dozen retirees wait for visitors in an impersonal room with signs and a loud television in the background. Wu Ying Qi worked for the country’s largest electric company and was confident of victory despite the polls. “Economy collapses as government insists on green energy and abandons energy nuclear energy. Economy is the most important thing, we all want to earn more money. If we win, we will sit down with Beijing and it will not be an impossible deal. We will increase student exchanges and sell more agricultural products…”
“We have connections with the whole world”
Girls gather at dusk in art galleries and upscale cafes in the Zhongzheng district. DPP headquarters is a somewhat indigestible explosion of light and colour. The candidate’s passions, baseball and dogs, dominate the pop-aesthetic space where young people in stylized suits hold press conferences. A volunteer offers an eraser “against Chinese lies.” “We We want to connect not only with China, but with the whole world” he explains.
The party cannot boast of extreme achievements. His economic management was mediocre. It is a fantasy, with very expensive houses, frozen salaries and a minimum wage equivalent to 865 euros. Nor has it increased birth rates, the campaign to expand the dominance of English has failed, economic diversification has not improved in 16 Asian countries, and scandals have piled up. None could be more devastating for the party that presents itself as progressive than the explosion of the phrase “metoo” in its ranks when an activist revealed that her superior had repeatedly ignored her complaints of sexual harassment. “Yes, he punished us, but we learned a lot too. Bullying happens everywhere, the difference is We have the will and policies to fight against this“says Betty Chen.
Young people’s disappointment with the PDP and their boredom with the two-party system pushes them towards Ko’s PPT: “New politics,” he says. Ko is an unopened melon that talks a lot and embodies little, whose slips are claimed as proof of its freshness. He won’t win, but his presence overshadows a national policy bordering on sclerosis.