A questionable restraining order France. The cancellation of the Council of Ministers last Wednesday increased rumors that there would be a new development in the neighboring country. possible change of governmenteven first minister, Elisabeth Borne. French president, Emmanuel Macron, In his traditional year-end speech on December 31, he promised that 2024 would be filled with “action” and “determination”. But this first week was dominated by government paralysis. Several official announcements and events. “The President has suspended the deadline for an indefinite period,” an Elysée advisor assured the newspaper. Le Monde. “Everything is possible, even nothing“He added, referring to a possible restructuring of management.
rumors remanufacturing These are a classic of French politics, especially in times of crisis. Following the revolt in the ‘suburbs’ at the end of June, speculation had already increased that Borne’s days were numbered and that Interior Minister Gérald Darmanin might replace him. In the end, all these rumors led to a much more modest change of government: eight ministers out of a total of 40 were replaced.
Almost six months later, a similar situation occurred again. feuilleton Will be approved on December 19 tough immigration lawThe Prime Minister acknowledged that this regulation consisted of a large number of measures to the taste of the Republican right and the far right, some of which may be “unconstitutional”. Adoption of this text by the votes of the Macronist coalition, Republicans (related to LR, PP) and National Regrouping related to Marine Le Pen This led to the resignation of Health Minister Aurélien Rousseau and Borne’s former private secretary. Universities threatened possible resignation and three other ministers (Culture, Transport and Industry) also voiced their discomfort with the controversial legislation.
Will Borne be forgotten after 2023?
From the largest wave of union protests in the neighboring country in the 21st century against unpopular pension reform in the first half of the year to the turmoil over immigration law, Macron has had a truly complicated 2023 in domestic politics. One year later dreadfulnessBorne seems like perfect insurance. At least that’s what many within Macronism believe. “A new page is opening. We need a new impulse, renewal. But with which personalities? With what government architecture? (…) The president must decide,” said François Bayrou, leader of the centrist MoDem formation, which together with the Renaissance party and former Prime Minister Édouard Philippe’s Horizons forms the Macronist coalition.
Borne is “the hand of the king.” “He looks like the secretary general of the Elysée rather than the head of government“, explains political scientist Luc Rouban, director of research at CNRS and Sciences Po Paris, to El Periódico de Catalunya of the Prensa Ibérica Group. Since his appointment as prime minister in May 2022, he has been criticized for his performance and not a very political profile Before jumping to Macronism in 2017, he accompanies this technocrat who served in the ministerial cabinets of the Socialist Party, although he was never a member of the Rose Party. Borne, 62, spent more than 19 months in Matignon. The most unpopular prime minister under Macron. His sympathy levels are lower than those of Philippe or Jean Castex.
“He kind of incarnates macronist authoritarianism“says Rouban, referring to the fact that Borne has appealed Up to 23 times the controversial Article 49.3 of the Constitution This allows laws to be approved without a parliamentary vote. He is the second prime minister who used this ‘decision’ the most in the history of the Fifth Republic. Ultimately, Borne’s weakness reflects Macron’s difficulties in his second term. Failure to obtain an absolute majority in the Turkish Grand National Assembly – Something unusual in the presidency of the Fifth Republic. According to Rouban, “the question is how this is possible” remanufacturingBecause this will not serve to solve the problem of not having a stable parliamentary majority.
Pressure of European elections
after being boiled by feuilleton Under immigration law, a hypothetical appointment of the controversial Darmanin to Matignon is priced to the downside. The most talked about names this week are: Economy Minister Bruno Le Mairedefense, Sebastien Lecornuand Ecological Transition, Christophe Bechu —all were part of the Republican right. However, a surprise appointment is not ruled out. Or the surprise is that there is no significant change in the outcome.
In fact, Macron is known as a president who likes to put up with his prime ministers. However, betting on continuity can be practically crazy, especially with some 150 days or so left. European elections where the far right is the favorite France. Polls show Le Pen’s party intends to win 30 percent of the vote; This figure is 10 points above the Macron coalition. The June 9 elections are presented as a classic by-election that could put the centrist leader in a difficult situation.
“In the coming weeks I will have the opportunity to tell you how the nation will face these challenges,” Macron said from the Elysée on December 31. A few weeks ago the president had already promised ““A big meeting with the nation in January”. However, a significant part of the French public views these “big announcements” with skepticism. The Elysée had already announced a similar initiative. tenant in September. Ultimately, however, this was limited to two meetings between the president and the heads of the main parties (both the presidential coalition and the opposition).
Although the year 2024 will be marked in France, since the commemoration in June, with events that will affect the planet. 80th anniversary of the Normandy landings From the reopening of Notre Dame in December to the Olympic Games in Paris in the summer – Macron risks falling prey to the inertia of difficult domestic politics. This weakens it at the European and international level.