Growth World Economy It will weaken in 2024, under pressure from the delayed effects of global warming, among other factors. rise interest rates It will have an impact on consumption, investment and global trade. In the report he prepared about ‘The situation and expectations of the world economy, 2024’‘ published this Thursday United Nations (UN) predicts that growth in the world economy will slow down 2.7% Estimated for 2023 2.4% In 2024.
UN in its new estimates four tenths improvement (up to 2.7%) is the 2023 forecast published in the middle of last year, but cut by one tenth 2024 (up to 2.4%). At the same time, a moderate recovery of 2.7% is predicted for 2025. The UN emphasizes that growth will continue for a long time in any case below pre-pandemic trend 3%.
“Although the world economy has avoided the worst-case recession scenario in 2023, this situation is on the horizon.” prolonged period of low growth“dissolves the guiding body Antonio Guterres. And that’s because under “durability polish“Risks such as high risks in 2023 are hidden” inflationary pressure There is a new increase in many countries. Conflicts in the Middle East or “delayed effect of sharp increases” interest rates“It is an initiative undertaken by central banks. The fact that interest rates remain high for a long time is shown as a serious obstacle to the global economy “he was depressed because of debt” Additionally, larger investments are needed to combat this. climate change and move forward Sustainable Development Goals (SDG).
In any case, economies are expected to suffer unevenly in each of the different regions of the world. For United States of AmericaThe UN predicts that growth will slow from 2.5 percent in 2023 to 1.4 percent in 2024. eurozoneHowever, an accelerated profile is expected, with the skeletal rate increasing from 0.5% in 2023 to 1.2% in 2024. SpainThe UN forecasts growth will rise from 2.4% in 2023 to 1.8% in 2024 (one-tenth above the IMF’s last forecast of 1.7%, but two-tenths below the Government’s forecast of 2% ).
global trends
“Tight financial conditions and growing risk geopolitical fragmentation, The UN report warns of increasing risks to global trade and industrial production.
In general, the UN finds that: labor market has recovered rapidly since the pandemic, exceeding pre-2008 financial crisis levels, and unemployment rates almost at historic lows United States of America and in some european economies. But this was not the case in many developing countries, especially developing countries. West Asia And Africa.
The New York-based organization also documents this, but world inflation decreasing, food prices could lead to further worsening of food insecurity and global poverty.
While observing this international trade As it loses its power as an engine of growth, the UN finds a boom in trade in services (in particular, tourism and transportation) and also “a tendency” reorganization of international trade relations“Within the scope of the countries’ purpose closer supply chains.
The UN report also draws attention to the following: Insufficient investment against climate change. It is estimated that this will happen by 2050. 150 billion dollars Investments in energy transition technologies and infrastructure and what will be needed 5.3 billion We’re spending a dollar a year just to transform the global energy sector. “But climate finance falls well below the level of green investment needed to limit temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels,” the document warns.