Nearly 49 million people were called to vote this Sunday. France within the framework of legislative elections, The second round will be held on 19 June. and that could turn out to be a serious setback for the president, Emmanuel Macronunless it renews its absolute majority in parliament.
His election appointment will come just two months after the presidential election, which will allow Macron to stay in Elíseo for another five years. to win Sea LePen, succeeded in raising the far right to over 40 percent of the vote.
Now agglutinated sols by melenchon in one application Under the name of the New Popular Ecologist and Social Union (known as Nupes), they aim to become the main opposition group and seize Macron’s majority in the National Assembly, which could make France’s leader Insumise prime minister, which could lead to coexistence. Between the President and the head of government of different political signs.
In that case, Macron and his centrist allies will need to join forces to implement their projects and arrangements, either by forming a coalition or by collecting the necessary votes each time.
This scenario is a Greater commitment of the parties to fulfill the government agendaand forming a coalition may mean leaving some portfolios in the hands of rival parties in favor of cooperation.
Three other cohabitations have occurred in the French Fifth Republic, the last of which was between 1997 and 2002, and the reduction of ‘a priori’ presidential terms from seven to five years makes it difficult for this to happen again.
With existing laws on the table, the Elysee and the National Assembly are being renewed practically simultaneously, only a few weeks apart. political trend should not change much. This time, however, opposition parties are trying to create an anti-Macron front on both the left and right of the president’s political spectrum.
Mélenchon, who has managed to unite the left for only the sixth time in the century, is working in this way to run an anti-Macron front, a strategy followed not only by the far right, but also by Le Pen. but also on “patriots” from moderate groups like the Republicans.
election campaign
In addition to the fierce battle between the presidential majority candidates and Nupes, Criticism from the current government. Oliver Véran, former Minister of Health and currently in charge of relations with the Parliament, criticized France Insumisa’s program and reminded that the country is going through a strong crisis with “yellow vests” in addition to a pandemic. A war in Ukraine.
Let’s not add to this an institutional crisis that will make the country unmanageable,” he said. announced shortly before the end of the campaign. Before insisting that Mélenchon does not represent the centre-left, he said, “I believe and hope we will get the majority (…) because coexisting with excessive political power is not living with a government party.”
Mélenchon sparked controversy this week after he accused Police of “killing”. calling a police unit a “grumpy group” to defend officers who shot and killed a woman He got into his car after he escaped.
This has led people like Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne to describe these as “ugly” and “shocking” statements, and to accuse Mélenchon of “lacking republican principles”.
Christophe Castaner, spokesman for La República en Marcha (LREM) in Parliament, accused the left of “wanting to ban everything”, according to the Liberation newspaper, and pointed out that the program has “Soviet” nuances. “They give us a vision of a society where either everything is forbidden or everything is allowed.”
In response to attacks from the coalition, Macron promised to give more voice to the people, especially in the provinces, and warned that the country faces a “historical” scenario similar to the one after the Second World War. the ‘moment’ that can lead to ‘a profound change’.
Macron sees his support at stake
Recent polls on voting intent show that: Less support for Macron and LREM and increased support for left-wing coalitions Managed by Mélenchon.
A poll by Ifop-Fiducial for the LCI TV network showed that the formation of the president could be done in the range of 250 to 290 seats in the National Assembly, which represents a drop from last May.
Data estimates Nupes could win between 195 and 230 seats; this is a clear increase compared to previously collected data. To maintain an absolute majority, Macron must win 289 of the 577 seats that make up the Parliament.
However, other polls such as Ipsos-Sopra’s predict a maximum of 200 seats for the left, while Le Pen’s National Assembly can get between 15 and 45 seats, while Macron’s formation remains favorite ahead of Nupes.
For these elections, the majority of the deputies prefer to be re-elected for their constituencies, as confirmed by the data collected by the newspaper ‘Le Figaro’ showing that 440 deputies participated in the re-election.
Low attendance
this abstention can play a fundamental role In this weekend’s election, the rate could surpass the record 51.3 percent set five years ago, according to the results after the presidential election, which resulted in unprecedented levels of abstention since 1969, according to polls.
Experts warn French society “not satisfied and indifferent” in relation to politics and also that Macron lost his element of surprise in 2017, when he promised profound political change.
Currently, polls show that confidence in the head of state and its formation has drastically diminished as the French perceive the government as “inadequate”, but the population fears that Nupes may fail where the current Executive has achieved good results.
Everything shows that the abstention can reach 52 percent in the face of this legislative election, which is of great importance for French politics and above all for the future of Macron and his allies in the Parliament.