Independent Financial Responsibility Authority (airef) warned this Wednesday rebalancing plan budgetary until 2026 This “does not comply with those established by” approved by the Cabinet on Tuesday Organic Budget Stability and Financial Sustainability Law“because, among other things”does not contain measurement Supporting the reduction of the deficit to 2.5% of GDP by the end of the period envisaged in the government’s document.
The plan approved by the Council of Ministers was sent to Turkey courts For discussion and approval. Fourth vice president and Minister of Finance, Maria Jesus MonteroOn Tuesday, he argued that the rebalancing plan would allow the deficit to be reduced to 3% of GDP in 2024 (from the 3.9% planned for 2023) and that this would be achieved.no interruption “not in the welfare state” but “thanks to economic growth, job creation and support from European funds.” According to Montero, “this is the first time a rebalancing plan has been approved in this country without resorting to neoliberal policies.” right to deduction”.
airef It also accuses the Government of ignoring the fiscal rule reform being finalized by the European Union. According to Airef calculations required setting To adapt to the new framework 0.64 points of GDP per year (equivalent to approximately 8,600 million annually) In the period 2025-2028, the deficit is 2% of GDP in 2026 and 0% in 2028, compared to the deficit proposed in the Government’s plan of 2.5% of GDP in 2026, Achieving a deficit of 8%. In any case, it is stated that the regulation that the new framework will ultimately require will depend on the final outcome of the reform.
target path
Detailing a topic rebalancing plan It is necessary after a period of fiscal rule suspension that has occurred in Europe in general and in Spain in particular since 2020 due to extraordinary economic conditions linked to the health crisis and later the crisis in Russia. Invasion of Ukraine.
After a period in which the public deficit in Spain reached 10.1% of GDP in 2020, the rebalancing plan must be approved to guarantee that the difference between revenue and expenses is directed towards GDP. maximum limit 3% GDPR allows this. Stability and Growth Pact of the European Union (PEC)
The text reproduces the same path of global public deficit targets already included by the Administration in the Stability Plan Update (in April) and subsequently in the Budget Plan sent to Brussels in October.
Therefore, in its documents, the Government plans to reduce the deficit of all administrations. 3.9% of GDP in 2023 to 3% in 2024; to 2.7% in 2025 and 2.5% in 2026.
devastating report
airef Questions that the rebalancing plan merely “expressed the way of unification” of previous documents. Complaint Lack of detailed information “as required by law” on the development of income and expenses in the state. To warn “The document does not explain whether the deficit reduction path meets the requirements of the future European fiscal rules framework.” But first of all, notes There is no “definition and schedule of measures to be taken to meet the targets and forecasts regarding economic and financial variables”, there is no “assumptions on which they are based” and there is no “stability analysis”.
For all this, devastating report The report, which is due to be published by Airef, concludes that the rebalancing plan presented by the Government “does not comply with the law of stability”. According to Airef, the document does not explain whether the deficit reduction pathway meets the EU’s requirements future European fiscal rules framework It does not clarify whether the 2024 General State Budget draft and the Budget Plan update will change the estimates. Moreover, He thinks the Rebalancing Plan will be exceeded medium term fiscal structural plan Spanish authorities will need to prepare in the spring of 2024 as a result of the reform of the European financial framework.
Suggestions
That’s why Airef recommends its design. a medium-term financial strategy In line with new fiscal rules and demanding to confront the fragility situation in public finances. He also recommends that studies be initiated. national fiscal framework reform.