The “third round” of the presidential elections. Controversial formula used at the end of April Jean-Luc Mélenchon (ecosocialist) has come true. french president, Emmanuel Macron, The future of his second term is at stake in the legislative elections this Sunday and June 19 (running round). The orientation of their policies will depend on the color of the majority in the future National Assembly. The absolute majority of the Macronista coalition Together hangs by a thread before the configuration. The New Popular Ecological and Social Unity (Composed of NUPES, Rebel France, Socialist Party, Greens and Communists) aims to form a living government with Mélenchon as Prime Minister.
The latest surveys are practically a connect in the first round between the new unitary coalition Wow (28%) and parties associated with the centrist leader (27%). In principle, a runoff in 577 constituencies—only those with the most votes in each—would be better suited for Macronist candidates, as they have more vote reserves than other (right-wing) parties. or extreme right). . However, these estimates should be taken with tweezers as this is a new scenario.
The French living abroad voted in the first round last week, and the results did not bode well for the president’s party. which led to a great Tension in the ranks of macronista. So much so that the centrist leader attacked his new rivals harshly.
Macron’s fear campaign against Mélenchon
During a trip to Puycelsi, near Toulouse, the president warned that, in the face of “disorder”, the French must give him an absolute majority if they did not want to get into “a great upheaval that would inevitably result in death”. a journey into unknown territory.” It gives 20 to 40 deputies.
In the last part of the Campaign, after a May punctuated with numerous controversies and marked by the message of continuity delivered by the appointment of the new Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne, who has a technocratic profile similar to that of her predecessor in Matignon, Jean Castex, and the new ministers, Macronism, she presents herself to Mélenchon and her new allies. devoted to attack.
Economy Minister Bruno Le Maire crossed out the leader of the New People’s Union “Chavez Gallo’s”. Finance minister Gabriel Attal predicted that if the left wins it will be a “financial guillotine”. Even macronist leaders fake news saying it is Wow He would forbid the French to “cut down the trees in their gardens” or force them to “report”.
Abstention is an important factor
“There is a real danger from the far left, which is advocating a violent and demagogic project on the economic level,” says Benjamin Haddad, a Macronist candidate from the 16th district of Paris, one of the capital’s wealthiest. Republican right to president’s party.
“I think all these criticisms have benefited us and show the fervor of macronism,” says Thomas Portes, a Mélenchonist candidate in the “suburb” district of Paris where the left could win a majority of the electorate. NUPES based its campaign on proposing ambitious measures such as boosting it. minimum wage up to 1,500 Euro net or limiting the prices of basic necessities to face the current economic situation deteriorated by inflation.
“In this campaign a rotation of the classical right-left axis, the party of order (Macron) against the party of action (Mélenchon)” underlines the political scientist Christophe Bouillaud, a professor at Sciences Po Grenoble, who thinks that an absolute majority of the left is unlikely: “It would be almost a miracle”. “The differential abstention—younger and French workers vote much less than older and wealthy people—should benefit Macron,” he recalls.
“Mélenchon, with his brilliant idea of presenting these elections as the third round of the presidential elections, has given these legislative elections more relevance than any such election since 2000”, the election schedule for the presidential election was aligned with the parliament. The elections underline the political analyst Thomas Guenolé. However, “a pretty indifferent campaignHe adds that the turnout is expected as low as 50%, because the French are not interested in the legislature. Abstention is likely to be an important factor in tipping the balance in Macron’s favour. But a surprise cannot be ignored either.