In late March, a month after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, a journalist asked the energy minister. Saudi Arabia to reflect the new situation created in energy markets. “Look what’s going on Who is talking about climate change today?”, said Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman with a hint of related cynicism. Still, he wasn’t exaggerating. Since European Uniona All talk as we begin to take steps to end its reliance on Russian oil and gas, the most complex areas of the mass sanctions campaign, Russian hydrocarbons By import from third countries. this renewable they barely entered the equation, despite the imperatives of science that required it to be cut in half. greenhouse emissions before 2030.
The war brought with it an extraordinary period. bonanza for fossil fuel producersjust when his hopes for the future began to be clouded by darkness ecological transition started on several continents. The benefits of the industry did not stop breaking records. Only in the first quarter of the year, 28 largest oil companies a world record common good More than $100,000 million is the best numbers for many in the past decade. for americans ConocoPhillips According to an analysis by The Guardian, it increased 375% compared to the same quarter last year. for hollandaise shell, 182%; for the British BP, 137%. And last month, the Saudi giant aramco once again positioned itself as the most valuable company on the planet, a throne until then held by Apple.
The oil companies are not alone at the banquet. With the intent to replace Russian gas, the war reactivated oil. investment in the gas sector, both of them producing construction of gas pipelines or new terminals for processing liquefied natural gas (LNGEnglish acronym) methane is transported in tankers, according to a recent report by Climate Action Tracker (CAT), “Facing the energy crisis unleashed by war, the rest of the countries had two options: reduce their use of fossil fuels by resorting to renewable fuels and energy efficiency or replace Russian gas with gas imported from other countries,” Niklas Höhne, founder of the Germany-based New Climate Institute and co-author of the report, told this paper.
gas gold rush
“Unfortunately, most governments have a gold rush to build new gas infrastructure. It happens in Europe, but also in North America, Asia and Africa”, adds Höhne. countries like GermanyGreece, EstoniaNetherlands or Italy announced the construction of new LNG terminals. United States of America He signed an agreement with Brussels to triple his exports to the continent over the next decade. Rome signed similar agreements Sweetcorn Y Algeria. with Germany train and negotiate with another Senegal. And in parallel, old stranded projects, for example Trans-Saharan gas pipeline (Nigeria-Niger-Algeria) reactivated, Canada, NorwayUSA or Japan.
The numbers also serve to explain this. European imports in 2020 115 billion cubic meters of LNG gas. If all the announced projects are finally built, double import, who can produce a scenario according to CAT excess capacity. The consequences of such an expansion, fueled by rapidly rising energy costs, are not lost on anyone. last april UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change He reiterated that greenhouse gas emissions must be halved by the end of this decade if the world is to avoid the most disastrous consequences of climate change. “If we want to prevent it, it’s now or never. global temperature rise It exceeds 1.5 degrees,” the scientists warned. warned last year to achieve this National Energy Agencynew gas and oil exploration should not be started.
Projects with decades of life
But the paradigm has changed due to the urgent need of governments to find out. short term solutions. “Countless LNG projects they had been in Europe for years, canceled or had trouble finding funding in the context of the green transition. “They’re now seen as viable again,” says Neils Bartsch, director of Gogel, a database that tracks investments in hydrocarbons. “And the problem is that many of these industry projects are not designed to replace Russian gas, but much longer life cycle. We’re talking decades of life,” adds Bartsch. According to experts, gas projects need to operate for an average of 20 years before investors can get the money back.
Scientists fear that this crisis once again lost opportunityAs for many, post covid recovery plansInvestment in renewable resources is generally below expectations. “We only have eight years to cut global emissions in half. Building all these new infrastructures would be a big mistake. Our margin of correction is running out,” says Höhne of the New Climate Institute.