The year 2023 is closing with sad climate records. If this year had been known a few days ago to be the hottest All history since records beganIt was learned that he attended a fair this year as well. New record in CO2 emissions to the atmosphere. As the COP28 summit is being held, the facts show that the planet has still not stopped the harmful effects of global warming, which continue to worsen.
According to the new annual report data published within the framework of the Global Carbon Project, despite scientists’ climate warnings, the total amount of CO2 released into the atmosphere will not decrease, but will reach a new record with 40.9 billion tons in 2023. of COP28.
This report, which offers a global vision of the carbon cycle and is called ‘Global Carbon Budget’, was prepared by researchers from the University of Exeter (United Kingdom), University of East Anglia (UEA), International Research Centre. Climate (Norway), Ludwig-Maximilian University of Munich and 90 other institutions worldwide.
This is the eighteenth edition of this report. Participation of more than 120 scientistswill be published in the magazine Earth System Science Data.
According to the data, it is expected Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil fuels, the main source of the greenhouse effect Efe reported that the amount of water caused by the climate crisis will increase by 1.1 percent compared to 2022, reaching 36.8 billion tons, a new record.
According to year-end estimates, when fossil-based CO2 emissions and changes in land use are added, the total figure will increase to 40.9 billion tons this year.
Global data higher than 2022This means 40.6 billion tonnes of CO2 will be released, confirming the continued progress towards meeting global climate targets, which should be “urgent” according to the report.
Although with large uncertainties, everything indicates that at current emissions rates there will be a 50% probability of global warming exceeding a normalized threshold of 1.5°C above the Earth’s thermal levels in about seven years. pre-industrial period.
Although around Half of the CO2 continues to be absorbed by “sinks” in land-based forests and oceans.The rest of the emissions remain in the atmosphere and cause climate change.
The warming predicted in the Paris Agreement will be exceeded
According to the figures, fossil CO2 emissions are decreasing in some geographic regions, including Europe and the United States, but are generally increasing globally.
Scientists warn about this Global action to reduce fossil fuels isn’t happening fast enough To prevent “dangerous” climate change.
Emissions from land use change (such as deforestation) are expected to decrease “somewhat”, but this will probably not be enough to offset levels of reforestation and afforestation (new forests).
“It seems inevitable We will exceed the 1.5°C target of the Paris Agreement” warns Professor Pierre Friedlingstein of Exeter’s Global Systems Institute and director of the report.
Fossil fuel “rapid cuts”
Given the situation, the climate summit to be held in Dubai by the 12th will need to agree on “rapid cuts in fossil emissions” to prevent the planet’s temperature from exceeding these levels. Maintain the target of not exceeding at least 2°C increases compared to the pre-industrial period.
According to the expert, “To avoid the worst effects of climate change, all countries need to decarbonise their economies faster than now.”
The report contains important data confirming that regional trends in the climate challenge vary greatly.
Thus, according to indicators, CO2 emissions are expected to increase in India (8.2%) and China (4.0%) in 2023. There were declines in the EU (-7.4%), the US (-3.0%) and the rest of the world (-0.4%).
By source type, global emissions from coal (1.1%), oil (1.5%) and gas (0.5%) are expected to increase.
According to estimates, the average atmospheric CO2 amount in 2023 will be 419.3 parts per million (ppp). 51% above pre-industrial levels.
According to figures, in 2023 Global CO2 emissions from forest fires An above-average impact occurred due to the extreme fire season in Canada, with an impact ranging from six to eight times the average.
Excluding CO2 removal through natural projects such as reforestation, carbon dioxide removal levels through technology amount to approximately 0.01 million tonnes of CO2; This is a million times less than current fossil CO2 emissions.
Also a global warming record
This alarming trend coincides with news of a new record in Earth’s warming.
The interim report made public by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) a few days ago on the state of the global climate confirms the following: 2023 will undoubtedly be the hottest year in history.
Data until the end of October shows that the year is behind us It is about 1.40°C warmer than the average since the pre-industrial period. The difference with the previous record holders in 2016 and 2020 is so large that the last two months of the year are unlikely to change the current result.
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