Extraordinary rate increase interest supported by central banks to combat inflation has resulted in a very strong increase in mortgage payments since the beginning of last year, resulting in families Able to pay some of their loans early reduce your debt and stop the coup. early repayments allow the quota to be reduced (so that pay less per month) or shorten the maturity period of the loan (in the long run less interest is paid). However, the trend towards increasing advance payments has begun to show clear signs of this. slow down in summer Banks expect this brake to continue in the coming months.
“This is what we saw in the third quarter: slow down a bit On mortgage prepayments: around 1 billion 000 million euros, compared to 1 billion 200 million euros in the second quarter; relative weight in the mortgage portfolio. We hope this trend will continue in the future keep slowing down. It makes sense that a good portion saving designed for prepayment of mortgages already used “And so the ability to continue making down payments continues to slow in line with economic conditions.” BBVA, Luisa Gómez Bravo.
In the same line, Matthias BulachAccounting Manager CaixaBankHe pointed out that extraordinary depreciations in his own organization increased from 500 million per month in 2022 to around 650 million in 2023, but “started to decrease “sometime in the summer.” The fourth quarter of 2022 and the first and second quarters of 2023, coup result of interest rate increase the most remarkable and noteworthy and now with the rise of the more consolidated yield curve, the impacts are starting to be a little bit smaller,” he explained. Leopoldo Alvearfinancial director Sabadellthat the prepayments in his organization were between July and September “and even a slightly below 2022 average”.
less growth
numerals Bank of Spain confirms this trend. Despite new loans worth 13.172 million, the mortgage balance decreased by 3.598 million euros in the three months of summer. Depreciation -between ordinary and extraordinary- 16.77 billion. This last figure is 1,002 million euros and 6.3% higher Compared to the same period in 2022 Brake Regarding the increase recorded between years second quarter (2.036 million and one 12.5%), which was already lower than others. First trimester (5.091 million and one 35.9%) And 2022 quarter (6.427 million and one %49).
The above-mentioned internal annual increase in depreciations of 6.3% between July and September is actually less than since the fall they recorded Last quarter of 2021 (-7%), ECB started to tighten Money Politics. Another way to look at the slowdown that has occurred is that depreciations in summer 2022 were equivalent to: 3% of balance They took a step on mortgage at the end of June 3.8% in the fourth quarter of last year and they’ve been falling ever since 3.7% In the first quarter of 2023 3.6% in the second and 3.3% during last summer.
More savings
The data does not show that families are running out of savings. According to INE, Gross disposable income increased by 12.2% more than they spent in the second quarter consumption (5.2%)With this saving their production (50.298 million) increased up to 20% The proportion of their disposable income increased compared to 14.7% in the first quarter. Moreover his financial wealth -difference between savings and debts- increased by 3% in the second quarter compared to the first quarter. According to the Bank of Spain, families had financial assets worth 2.75 trillion euros and liabilities of 756 billion 419 million as of the end of June. 1.99 billion. Most of their savings cash and deposits (1.03 billion, 0.7% more than in the first quarter) and companies and funds investment (1.24 trillion, 2.4% more).
According to various financial sources, the slowdown in depreciation increases is mostly due to Families who can afford the down payment While some of the mortgages have already done so to cushion the blow of Euribor Other households do not have resources sufficient. They also emphasize that total savings are not the same. excess savings (those who do not want to invest or have a safety cushion against unforeseen events). According to data from the Bank of Spain, exactly families with more incomeand therefore, with more resources available, 1.6 times more was paid upfront than the less wealthy. It is also noted that there are differences in the sector from year to year. euribor Always more inclusiveIncreasingly moderate installment increases reduce the incentive for early payment.