EL PERIÓDICO correspondent Russia for the past seven years—plus another four years in the previous season— Marc Marginedas He is an exceptional witness of the regime’s Stalinist shift. Vladimir Putin. He was also able to control in place Destruction of Russian troops UkraineIt’s where Putin has traveled twice to cover the conflict since he began the invasion on February 24. This Friday, Marginedas, together with former NATO Secretary General Javier Solana, will deliver a speech at the Cornellà Creació Forum on how the war in Russia and Ukraine affects the international situation and relations between the great powers.
Q: How has the war in Ukraine changed the international chessboard?
A: It was an earthquake for the world relations system. It consolidated the European Union and NATO. The EU’s response was generally very unanimous, with Putin not capitalizing on the differences. The EU is a point of attraction for Russia and for countries that are part of the post-Soviet space, and I think this is perceived as a threat even more than NATO. The transatlantic link has also been consolidated as we come from a time when the transatlantic link and its solidarity with NATO’s mutual defense clause are being questioned.
And relations between Russia and China?
The bond between the two countries has strengthened, but it is a very unequal bond with China as the dominant power due to its greater economic weight and this will only get worse. For Russia to meet the sanctions blow relatively successfully, it must sell its oil and gas to other customers. And the number one customer is China. But China will not do this for free, it will impose rather brutal conditions, especially considering how it perceives Russia in a weak position.
What could be Putin’s next steps in Ukraine? Will the conflict escalate?
Putin must be judged by the behavior of his military and government in past conflicts. Now Russia is not considering any negotiation moves. More and more signs are reaching us that Putin is approaching the most radical section of the Kremlin, personified in Security Council secretary Nikolai Patrushev. It is closely linked to highly questionable moments in Putin’s life, such as the attacks that allowed him to come to power and killed 300 people. What is clear now is that while the lightning strike fails, what Putin is trying to achieve is victory out of exhaustion. They hope that the war will continue, that its economic effects will begin to be felt among the peoples of Europe, and that the unity that the Western bloc has shown so far will begin to crumble.
What role does Zelensky, a president who comes to politics from the worlds of television and comedy, play in the conflict?
The good thing about Zelensky is that he embodies a very modern image that connects very quickly and modern Western societies can empathize with. He does not surround himself with imperial paraphernalia like Putin. From the communicator’s point of view, it is clear that he has won the game by a large margin. Zelenskiy, who was recently elected, is a clear example that the comedy program ‘People’s Servant’, in which he played after some meetings with Putin, can be watched in Russia. In one of the first episodes of this show, he literally insults and makes fun of Putin. Until the censors noticed, it was visible from Vladivostok to Novosibirsk due to the time difference. The broadcast was canceled and Zelensky said the next day, “Russia has atomic weapons, we have the ‘Servant of the People’.” If there’s one thing that can weaken and anger an autocrat, it’s a sense of humor.
After gas and oil, grain is the next weapon of war in Ukraine.
Russia is not doing anything it has not done in previous wars. Like hunger, sexual violence, or the bombing of civilian infrastructure, it’s something we’ve seen before and never been held accountable for. And now, when it comes to grain, Russia is not afraid to take a large part of the world hostage.
How is the situation in Russia? Is this war likely to wear out Putin?
I think the war has already worn him out. Information that says Putin is very popular should be taken with great reservations, very dubious given that in Russia people do not speak freely. Just a year ago, there were hundreds of thousands of people protesting Putin on the streets. This did not change overnight, only the Russian citizen accepted decades of authoritarianism and now knows that the regime has made a very distinct Stalinist turn. Any sign of doubt regarding the military operation is perceived very negatively by the regime. Also, reports of problems between the Army and Putin are becoming more and more credible, as the Army thinks that Zelensky’s government is sending him to Ukraine under false pretenses, thinking it will melt like sugar cubes in water. .
What are the chances that Russia will use the atomic weapon?
There are a few things: (Kremlin spokesman Dmitri) Peskov implied that this possibility would not materialize unless Putin’s survival was at stake. On the other hand, Putin will have given new signals before using this weapon. Also, more and more people are saying that this is not a decision the president can make alone, it has to go through another set of filters found in the military. We also know that the army is not satisfied with the current situation.