It was nothing but a dead and buried corpse; It was nothing but the horrific violence that the attack unleashed. Hamas south of Israel October 7 and the subsequent Israeli military offensive Loop put the old one back into orbit formula of two cases for resolve conflict between Palestinians And Israelis. HE status quo it does not work. This does not bring peace and security to either side. It led to an indisputable result United States of America, European Union, Chinese or Arabic countries request a place to be opened political process According to the formula, as soon as the war is over peace for the regions. All that remains to be known is whether the option is viable given the harsh reality on the ground and whether the international rhetoric contains more of the same empty words and failed strategies that have turned the two states into an enemy. permanent failure.
The well-intentioned discourse is obvious. Spain I want to organize an event peace conference As soon as the bombs stop. Brussels This, he insists, is the only solution to which, in the words of Josep Borrell, “we must devote all our political energy”. And from washingtonthe mantra is even more insistent. It’s been repeated every day lately due to a purely internal matter: Joe Biden’s re-election may depend on it. full authority to Israel angered many Democratic voters. ” two state solution This is the only way to guarantee long-term security for Israelis and Palestinians,” Biden wrote at a recent forum in ‘The Washington Post’. “This crisis has made this more imperative than ever.”
HE international consensus This view is largely shared by Israelis and Palestinians who still advocate a fairly fair solution to the conflict, although they do not have much faith in the feasibility of that solution. alternative, one binational state This initiative for equal rights for Israelis and Palestinians never gained traction. “Palestinians will have to give up on themselves” right to self-determination and Israelites living in one place Jewish and democratic state. “This is madness and the people will not accept it,” says the former Israeli Minister of Justice. Yossi Beilinwas the leader of the left party meretz and one of the failed negotiators peace processes.
It is not lost on anyone that two states can fly only under the following conditions external pressure This is huge, and there is a desire to punish actions that go against the goals of the agreement. “It can only work if it works like this: Same guide for the last 30 years”says Palestinian political commentator Nur Odeh. “In order to create a political horizon, the world needs to make it clear that terrorism must end. Israeli occupation And Settlement expansionand the political process cannot be extended indefinitely,” he adds in an interview.
Troubled leadership on both sides
But first the current leaders on both sides must disappear, each for different reasons. Palestinian Mahmoud Abbaswho rules West Bank As an autocrat for 19 years, because no matter how oppressed he is, he has lost all legitimacy among his population. White horse from Europe and the USA For his unwavering commitment to peace. The exact opposite Hamas, He is currently struggling to survive in Gaza. Neither Israel nor the West will ever accept that Islamists are a legitimate interlocutor. terrorism Because part of the organizational chart does not accept the Jewish state even in one square centimeter of historical Palestine.
Eventually he would have to leave Benjamin Netanyahu, He devoted his political career to this Torpedoing the Palestinian stateIt is fragmenting its territory, fueling internal divisions, and encouraging Hamas to use it as a pretext for a coup. Israel’s inaction. More precisely, constantly expansionism. “Netanyahu’s government will fall as soon as the war is over,” says Beilin, echoing the consensus view in Israel. “Whether through elections or votes of no confidence. If he doesn’t go, people will push him out with street protests.” He points to the main opposition leaders as viable alternatives that could embrace the peace process: Yair Lapid And Benny GantzBoth of them are currently in the unity government.
The theoretically ‘easiest’ part of the mess so far: political willBoth internal and external are necessary to start the conversation. The hardest part is small print of the agreement And conditions on the field to be able to implement this. Although the frameworks for what the agreement should look like are pretty clear after three decades of many failed attempts, this is where things get a little more complicated. “Historically the hardest thing has been Jerusalem and luck Palestinian refugees“But the biggest problem now is the huge Israeli presence in the West Bank,” Beilin says in a phone interview.
Evil reality on the field
Inside 1993When Oslo AccordsIn the first attempt at a two-state solution, there were 90,000 Jewish settlers. have today 500,000distributed in some regions 350 settlements, Some are little more than a handful of caravans, some are actual cities; illegal under international law. “Most of the settlements strategically positioned to break Continuity of Palestinian lands and prevent the establishment of a state there,” says the activist. Dror EtkesHe is one of the Israelis who knows its texture best. Israeli occupation In the West Bank. “The entire Israeli system is targeted support colonizationSo Israel will have to reinvent itself if it wants to end the project.”
Thinking that this entire structure can fall apart is nothing but misleading. Settlers control large areas of the region today. Army And Israel’s political power They are heavily armed and aim to evacuate the Palestinians, not to share the region. Although the latter considers it a large residential blocks If they came under Israeli rule, at least they would continue to stay 130,000 settlers within the borders of the hypothetical State of Palestine. Literally the most radical of them all.
Skepticism among the public
But if there is political will, there is nothing technically impossible. Two years ago Yossi Beilin Presented with Palestinian negotiator Hiba Hussein and create a detailed proposal to their respective teams two confederation states We accept Jerusalem as our common capital. “The main purpose of the confederation is that settlers who want to stay in the region. Palestine permanent residents and those who retain Israeli citizenship. “The same number of Palestinians could remain in Israel under similar conditions,” Beilin explains.
Of the four experts consulted, the historic leader of Israel’s anti-occupation left is the only one who is somewhat optimistic about current conditions. The rest are as skeptical of the two states as public opinion on both sides. Just weeks before the start of the war, 35 percent of Israelis I thought it was possible living together in peace Besides the State of Palestine, there is only one 24 percent of Palestinians They supported this formula 35 points less than in 2012.
“If only Sanctions against Israel “And if he is held accountable for his actions, the pendulum may swing, but none of that will happen in the current political climate.” Diana ButtuHe served as the spokesperson of the PLO and its legal advisor during the negotiation processes. “Unless there is coercive intervention from the international community, both sides will continue to kill each other because there is so much hate and hatred. religious fundamentalism. The conflict is not getting better, quite the opposite,” says the Israeli Dror Etkes.