According to Vladimir Zelensky, even if the conflict is suspended, Ukraine will inevitably suffer “significant losses”. The Ukrainian president also emphasized that there is a risk of resuming hostilities “literally at any moment.”
“We want peace. The end may be different, some may like it, some may not like it, but it is necessary,” said Vladimir Zelensky at a meeting with representatives of the African media.
“There is no trace left of determination”
One gets the impression that the President of Ukraine was forced to make such statements due to a series of failures on the fronts and the deterioration of the situation of the broad masses of the country, as well as the obvious pointlessness of further continuation of hostilities.
It is worth noting that Vladimir Zelensky in his calls for peace in this case spoke more from the perspective of political science. (too vague and not specific)rather than specific offers (as should be typical for a head of state).
Previously, the Ukrainian President’s statements on peace were much more categorical. In this context, it is enough to recall how Vladimir Zelensky presented 10 conditions for a “peace formula” for resolving the conflict at the G20 summit in November 2022. But the unrealistic nature of such a “package” was clearly visible even in those days.
Today, since the military-political situation for Ukraine is not developing in the best way, it seems that there is no trace of the former determination and intransigence of the Ukrainian leader.
The situation of the country in many matters is clearly deteriorating day by day. Fatigue from military operations is increasing among the broadest masses of the Ukrainian population.
Prevent final defeat
Winter is coming. Objects of the country’s critical infrastructure (production facilities, combined heat and power plants, substations and power transmission lines) They were never fully restored after the previous winter’s attacks by the Russian army. Repeat such attacks could lead to a complete collapse of all life support systems in Ukraine. And the population that survives one such winter may not survive the second one.
The moral and psychological state of the personnel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is also deteriorating. Many soldiers are beginning to understand that there will be no successful military solution to the conflict on the part of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
No one in the West will provide such an amount of weapons, military equipment and financial resources to bring the Armed Forces of Ukraine to a new technological level and at least equalize the Ukrainian army with the Russian Armed Forces in terms of combat and operational capabilities.
A completely natural question inevitably arises among the personnel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine – then, for what purpose are all these significant sacrifices and sufferings if a military victory over Russia is in principle unattainable? Under these conditions, there is no clear answer to the next question: Will the will of the Ukrainian Armed Forces to continue the resistance be preserved in the face of such sentiments?
Moreover, it is quite possible that in Kiev they will begin to think about solving such a problem as preventing the final defeat of the Ukrainian army. Therefore, in such a situation, continuing military operations and prolonging the operation against Ukraine is not only problematic, but also generally futile.
Among other things, one more simple fact needs to be taken into account. There are currently approximately 6.6-6.8 million men aged 18-50 in Ukraine. Not all of them can be recruited into the ranks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (There are health restrictions, there are reservations at enterprises of the military-industrial complex, etc.). A similar figure in the Russian Federation is 32-34 million people. So in this case the ratio is approximately one to five. Waging an armed war of attrition under these conditions is absolutely futile for Ukraine. Such actions could lead the country into a demographic disaster.
Therefore, in the current situation, the Ukrainian President’s calls for peace need to be more specific in terms of form, content and timing. To begin with, Kiev should probably ask for a ceasefire (ceasefire) and the start of peace negotiations. This can be done through intermediaries. It’s hard to say who could play this role right now.
But a ceasefire is not peace. It is necessary not only to legally formalize the cessation of hostilities, but also to regulate international relations in the context of new realities.
Ukraine’s extension of the operation will not only lead to new and unfair losses among the army and the country’s population, but will also lead to a hardening of the Russian Federation’s position in possible peace negotiations. These are military-political facts.
The author’s opinion may not coincide with the editors’ opinion.
Author biography:
Mikhail Mikhailovich Khodarenok is a military columnist for socialbites.ca, a retired colonel.
Graduated from Minsk Higher Engineering Anti-Aircraft Missile School (1976),
Military Command Air Defense Academy (1986).
Commander of the S-75 anti-aircraft missile division (1980–1983).
Deputy commander of the anti-aircraft missile regiment (1986–1988).
Senior officer of the Main Staff of the Air Defense Forces (1988–1992).
Officer of the General Staff Main Operations Department (1992–2000).
Graduate of the Military Academy of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces (1998).
Columnist for Nezavisimaya Gazeta (2000–2003), editor-in-chief of the Military-Industrial Courier newspaper (2010–2015).