this European embargo on Russian oil It will reduce the growth of the eurozone, which will be implemented from the next few months “just over half a point” in 2023, OECD chief economist Laurence Boone said on Wednesday.
Moreover, will have an additional effect on inflation, He 1.25 points higher Compared to what would have happened next year had it not been decided to implement this measure to ban imports of Russian crude oil, Boone said during the presentation of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development’s semi-annual Outlook report.
This is because, according to the organization’s calculations, the average oil price will be $123 per barrel in 2023 due to the embargo, compared to $107 without these sanctions.
Boone blamed predictable increase in oil to producing countriesEspecially for the OPEC member states of the Persian Gulf, which have enough capacity to launch more barrels than the European Union buys from Russia (close to 3.5 million per day).
“Today, there is oil in the world that is not used enough to completely balance the embargo on Russian oil, but especially in the Gulf countries. Gulf countries, if OPEC releases that oil, they will release it,” he said.
“We are all paying the price for Russian aggression in Ukraine,” which was “a major shock to the world economy,” Boone said. , with help that should be selective and temporary.
Impact on the world economy
Due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the OECD significantly lowered its forecasts for the world economy. will grow 3% instead of 4.5% this year It was estimated in his report before the beginning of December. The correction is particularly strong in European countries that are heavily dependent on Russian gas, oil and coal imports.
In any case, the organization’s secretary-general, Mathias Cormann, stated that they do not foresee a recession either in the world or in Europe, although he acknowledged that there are a number of downside risks that could affect their prospects, particularly due to a crisis. Energy inflation may be higher than expected.
“It justified international sanctions that were the direct result of Russia’s illegal aggression against Ukraine,” Cormann said. sanctions are effective, they are working. One of the sanctions that has had the most impact is the (Russian) central bank’s lack of access to its reserves.”
He stressed that Russia receives less demand for its oil and production. Also, if the embargo on Russian crude was totaled by the G7 countries and the EU, it would reduce Russia’s revenue by between $51,000 million (42% of total oil revenue) and $67,000 million (50%) annually. .
But beyond its impact on the Russian economy, which should suffer a 10% recession this year according to the OECD, Cormann said: “This war is a humanitarian disaster”. Since the beginning of the war, nearly seven million people have left Ukraine and eight million have become internally displaced.”
Globally, “the recovery was well underway at the beginning of the year. Inflation was rising, but it was supposed to be temporary.”
But, Cormann sums up, “with war, economic growth will be lower and inflation higher for longer. Both private investment and consumer confidence have been impacted, as well as supply chains.”