Climate change threatens to melt mountain glaciers, while rising temperatures could lead to heavier snowfall in some parts of the Alps. French climatologists from Grenoble Alpes University reached this conclusion. The study was published in the scientific journal magazine Cryosphere.
According to experts, the thermal effect will cause an increase in precipitation in the middle and low mountains. At the same time, the amount of snowfall will increase by 7% for each degree of global warming.
The study used one of the climate models from Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5, a worst-case baseline scenario for greenhouse gas emissions that predicts Earth’s temperature to rise 4.3°C above pre-industrial levels by 2100.
Using real-world data on temperature and daily precipitation measurements, as well as meteorological forecasts from 1951 to the present, scientists studied 23 massifs in the French Alps to predict global warming-related changes at every degree over the remainder of this century.
They found that annual mean daily snowfall increased significantly above 3,600 m but decreased below 3,000 m. This means that for every 1°C increase in temperature, the snow line will move 123 meters higher into the mountains.
This situation continued until +3°C global warming, after which the altitudes where significant changes in precipitation and snowfall were observed decreased further, reaching a minimum of 900 m at +4°C global warming (26% decrease in snowfall per year).
However, in the higher regions of the Alps (above 3,600 metres), including the northeastern Vanoise massif, snowfall is expected to increase by 12% during the winter months.
The researchers say the study has implications for other mountain areas that will help local communities plan for the future in response to changes in precipitation.
Previous scientists statedThe rapid melting of ice in the Swiss Alps alarms them.