Rapid warming in the Arctic region will push global average temperatures above the critical climate threshold of 2°C five to eight years earlier than expected. This conclusion was reached by British scientists from University College London and their colleagues in other countries. The research was published in the official gazette Web site European Geosciences Union (EGU).
Experts examined 40 climate models that form the basis of the UN’s 2021 climate change report. These models divide the Earth’s surface into a three-dimensional grid of cells, simulating the physical processes occurring inside each cell. As modeling shows, due to rising temperatures in the Arctic, the global limit of 1.5°C will be exceeded in 2031, and the limit of 2°C will be exceeded in 2051 instead of 2036 and 2059.
In 2015, warming targets of 1.5°C and 2°C were set in the international Paris climate agreements; temperatures beyond this mean that climate change will begin to develop unpredictably, creating increasing threats to humanity and life on our planet.
Scientists also found that disproportionately rapid warming in the Arctic, known as Arctic amplification, adds similarly disproportionate uncertainty to climate predictions.
Pole condensation, which is most pronounced during the winter months, is caused by several factors. One of these turned out to be retreating sea ice; This means more sunlight (and heat) is absorbed by the water rather than being reflected back into space. Another factor was less vertical mixing of air at the poles than in the tropics, allowing warmer air masses to remain closer to the Earth’s surface.
“Rapid warming in the Arctic has global consequences that we did not account for in this study, including rising sea levels and thawing permafrost that releases more carbon into the air,” said study co-author Julien Stroeve of the University of Manitoba in Canada. .
Previous scientists in the name Warming in the Arctic threatens millions of people.