When asked about their purchase intentions during Black Friday last year, 64% of consumers surveyed association of manufacturers and distributors AECOC He said he wanted to take advantage of this. In fact, 24% stated that they would use this discount campaign to anticipate Christmas shopping. This year, as we are on the verge of the most consumption period of the year, the percentage of people planning to shop on Black Friday drops slightly (57%), but on the other hand Consumers who plan to purchase Christmas items early. According to the data that AECOC will make public this week, this rate is 47%. And the trade knows it: The big players in the market are looking forward to the next two months stability in sales and some more; and small businesses are viewed with resignation.
“People are waiting Making spending on Christmas and gifts more expensiveso try to prepare and anticipate take advantage of these offers“analyzes Head of studies at AECOC Shopperview, Marta MunneThis indicates that the increase in direct food, material and mortgage costs are the main reasons for this trend.
He notes that it’s true that Christmas is a key spending category, but given the current situation many consumers “will have to rationalize these purchases”. change gift typeso be it Take advantage of Black Friday. “This consumption is not incremental, so it will be a transfer and advance of expenditure,” he concludes.
According to his experience comertia, Catalan Family Retail Businesses AssociationBlack Friday, which has gained importance as a shopping excuse for years, has already become one of the strongest campaigns of the year. sales. “This has its advantages and disadvantages,” he explains minister, David Sánchez Farran–. The advantage is that the customer is understanding. There are more visits to the store and online channel This is also perceived in sales; The disadvantage is that there will be fewer sales in the before and after period.”
Therefore, for this manager in 2023 November and December months of “stability” and “transition”: just as has been the case since inflation took hold of the consumer’s pocket, a little more cash will be made, but almost entirely due to increases in product prices. “We will find ourselves facing a November that should be good, a December that should be persistent due to gift purchases, and a January that should be strong due to winter sales,” predicts Sánchez Farrán.
Neither savings nor consumer loans
“This will be a campaign” [de Black Friday] “I’m very keen to start shopping for Christmas,” he also points out. IESE professor specializing in consumer behavior, José Luis Nueno. These expert profiles A customer whose pandemic depleted his savings and he wasn’t fit to get in No consumer loan typeIn other words, far from the festive atmosphere felt last year, strategic purchasing will dominate in the coming months. “There is a favorable wind, meaning jobs have been created, but the majority young people And low salariesThis means a small purchase of ‘ticket’,” adds this teacher.
A manager of this large-scale retail market also does not open cava, preferring to maintain his anonymity. “There is no expectation of overflowing joy, but what is met with optimism,” this source describes of a situation. inflation seems to be more controlled than last yearA. unfulfilled threat of recession and one Consumption remains stable. “We say with a small mouth, because the trade catches a cold at the slightest sneeze, it is very sensitive to all kinds of variables, but the forecast is positive,” he explains. In any case, they are happy to see the same thing happen as last year, when Black Friday worked very well without losing its vitality in the first half of December.
A Christmas of Normalcy
English CourtOne of the banners of this time of year already talked about “optimism” on the subject. a “calmer” campaign than previous onesAfter significant ups and downs cost crisis wave lack of raw materials. A few days ago he stated that “this year normality is at the forefront and there is nothing that will change Christmas”. responsible for purchasing toys for these large stores, Guadalupe Corzo. Of course, in their case, these good feelings are closely linked to the performance they expect from their company. “We expect above-market growth and expect to consolidate ourselves as the benchmark in Christmas and toys,” the same spokesman said. In fact, as EL PERIÓDICO learned, at least in Catalonia, the volume of recruitment of this group to strengthen the campaign is comparable to that before the pandemic.
HE small businessOn the other hand, he experiences this with the same surrender as always. “The trend in other years will be preserved, but we do not expect either big discounts (because there is no capacity to do this), nor a noticeable increase in sales, because the consumer is in his pocket and that’s the way it is,” they say from Spanish Trade Confederation (MSK). “The truth is there is some fear” goes deeper President of PIMEComerç, Alex Goni. “There are things happening in the world that shape people’s thinking, wars are very close to us and this affects us, even if unconsciously,” he explains. “Will it be a wonderful Christmas? No Will it be a good Christmas? Absolutely,” this spokesperson concludes.