The Spanish economy is on the path to slowdown. Gross domestic product slowed its growth slightly in the summer months, so GDP It increased by 0.3 percent between July and September According to data, after increasing 0.6 percent and 0.4 percent in the first two quarters of the year, compared to the second quarter Quarterly National Accounting It was published this Friday by. National Institute of Statistics (INE).
At an annual rate, compared with the third quarter of 2022, the change in GDP remains at 1.8%; This is two tenths below the 2% recorded in the previous quarter. According to the government, this progress is in line with its forecast of 2.4 percent growth for the whole of 2023, following 5.8 percent growth in 2022.
GDP growth in the third quarter was supported above all by the power of the United States. home consumption, It recorded 1.4 percent growth in the third quarter purchasing power gains and employment development. However, investments fell by 0.8% quarterly. Tourism contributed to economic activity thanks to excellent seasonal data in July and August.
There was a similar decrease in foreign demand components in the third quarter. export (-4%), as follows imports (-3.1%).
On the supply side, the sectors that contribute the most to growth are as follows: manufacturing industry (0.8% increase) and Services (0.9%), compared to the second quarter agriculture (-3.4%) and structure (-0.6%).
Investment accelerates annual growth
In annual rates household consumption 1% higher than in the same period of the previous year (1.2 points lower than in the last quarter), and public administrations It increased by 3.3% (eight-tenths less than per second). gross capital formation It recorded a change of 1.9%, 1.1 points higher than the previous quarter. On their part, export In the third quarter, it was 2.4% lower than in the same period of 2022. imports They fell 2.9%.
national demand While contributing 1.7 points to the annual GDP growth of 1.8%, foreign demand two tenths added (in rounded figures in each case).
Although in real terms, excluding the impact of inflation, the economy grew by 1.8% in the second quarter, progress in current terms was 8.1% (compared to 8.7% in the second quarter).
Accelerated employment growth
Employment growth is measured as: full time equivalent jobsIt accelerated in the third quarter with a 2.4% increase, 2 percentage points higher than in the second quarter. But in terms of hours worked, The quarterly change was much smaller at 0.1%, corresponding to a 2.3% reduction in the average full-time shift.
On an inter-year basis, hours worked varied by 1.9%, an eight-tenths higher rate, than in the second quarter of 2023, and full-time equivalent positions varied by 3.5% to four tenths higher; This represents an increase of 678,000 full-time equivalent jobs in one year.
Interannual change in unit labor cost at 5.9% this quarter and wage per employee, It is at 4.2%.
Productivity The number per full-time equivalent job fell 1.6% in the third quarter. Productivity per hour actually worked decreased by 0.1% compared to the same period last year.
The slowdown in economic activity in the third quarter shown by the National Accounts data published this Friday is also in line with the acceleration in employment creation detected in the Active Population Survey published by INE on Thursday for the same period.
Positive assessment of the government
For the government, the 0.3% improvement in the third quarter means: A “very remarkable” fact in a context high international uncertainty and increases in interest rates. According to the manager, the data confirms that the Spanish economy differs from the main countries of the eurozone, as follows: macroeconomic forecasts It is included in the Budget Plan.
In the Budget Plan sent to the European Commission on 15 October, the incumbent Government raises its economic growth forecast for this year from 2.1% to 2.4%, but reduces it from 2.4% to 2% for next year. The 2% forecast for 2024 of the incumbent Government’s new macroeconomic framework is slightly more optimistic than those recently formulated by the International Monetary Fund (1.7%), the Bank of Spain (1.8%) or the European Commission (1.9%). .