A massive explosion at the Arab Baptist hospital in the Strip killed at least 471 people, according to Gaza health officials, sparking outrage in many Middle Eastern countries. This hinders their governments’ efforts to de-escalate and mediate the conflict. And this is even before it is known for certain whether the author is from Israel (he has very similar bombings) It has already killed more than 3,500 people. including more than a thousand children in 12 days); Or, as Tel Aviv tries to show, Islamic Jihad fears that so many fronts will be opened in its war that its capacity will be overwhelmed and the number of casualties in its ranks will skyrocket to an unbearable limit.
Regimes in the region fear that they will not be able to control the tsunami of solidarity created by their citizens in the suffering of Gaza, and Let a new “Arab Spring” break out this threatens their government. Or an uncontrolled wave of violence against civilian infrastructure, diplomatic missions or Western tourists, damaging their economies.
The most direct impact of the massacre of civilians in the hospital that shocked the world was King of Jordan II. Abdullah cancels mini peace summit He said he was making preparations when US President Joe Biden visited the region. Egyptian President Abdel Fattá al Sisi and Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, who played a key role in opening humanitarian corridors, would also attend the meeting.
“It has been many years since we have seen mobilization of this magnitude in these countries in terms of the volume of young people (and not-so-young people) taking to the streets to condemn Israel and what is perceived as inaction by the Israeli government. international community,” Moussa Bourekba, chief researcher at CIDOB (Barcelona Center for International Affairs), tells this newspaper. Arab countries (Jordan, Tunisia, Saudi Arabia or to a lesser extent Morocco)”There is now less room in plans to approach Israel than before”. He points out that although they are authoritarian regimes, the pressure is so high that they cannot continue to develop the commercial, cultural or diplomatic relations they maintained after the Abraham Accords, which were signed with Tel Aviv through mediation by many countries. Donald Trump’s in 2020.
A few hours after the hospital massacre became known, thousands of protesters, some violent, attacked many embassies in different countries in the region. Protests were held in front of the diplomatic delegations of the USA and Israel in Lebanon and Jordan. And a large demonstration involving thousands of people in Egypt is quite unusual because the El-Sisi regime harshly suppresses all protests and restricts freedom of expression. The Egyptian autocrat’s fear is that the Muslim Brotherhood, which he removed from power, will gain power from this situation.
Violence in the West Bank
The hottest area is the West Bank, the other part of Palestine separated from Gaza. Two young people lost their lives As a result of Israeli security forces opening fire on the town of Shukba this Wednesday, the number of Palestinian victims in this area since October 7 increased to 64. At least one more Palestinian was killed by the Israeli Army last night during protests regarding the hospital massacre in the village of Nabi Saleh, north of the capital Ramallah. According to the Red Crescent and the Palestinian news agency Wafa, there are many people with gunshot wounds in the West Bank who are in serious condition.
Another big concern is Lebanon. Pro-Iran Islamist group Hezbollah is threatening to open a northern front against Israel if it forces its way into Gaza. This Wednesday, He called for a “day of wrath” Thousands of his followers marched towards the US Embassy in Awkar, a suburb of Beirut, Europa Press reported. They shouted “Death to Israel” or “Made in the United States.” Lebanese security forces dispersed the demonstration with tear gas. “What we have is faith and Allah is stronger than you Your warships and all your weapons,” said senior Hezbollah official Hashim Safieddin, referring to the massacre at the Gaza hospital. According to Reuters, Trump is a threat to US President Joe Biden, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and “malicious Europeans” added.
Israel says it is preparing for a ground operation into Gaza, which has not yet begun 12 days after the Hamas massacre. The USA has support. Secretary of State Antony Blinken attended a lengthy meeting of Israel’s war cabinet on Tuesday. “During Biden’s visit to Israel this Wednesday, it is necessary to decide, among other goals, what strategy they may prefer. If an invasion were to occur, the risk of escalation of regional tensions would be higher than ever,” explains Bourekba. “The first escalation could occur on: Israel’s northern front with Lebanon and perhaps Syria. Then there may be problems with Iran-backed militias in Iraq (militia of Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sader) and Yemen (Houthi rebels). Or the beginning of attacks on Israeli and American targets and interests in different Middle Eastern countries: infrastructure, diplomatic personnel…”
For now, Hezbollah prefers a low-intensity type of warfare that includes launching missiles at the Israeli border. This Wednesday, it attacked five sites, from the Israeli military barracks in Zar’it to the Ras Naqoura border position. It also launched anti-tank missiles against the kibbutz. Manara and Rosh HaNikra are near the border. Israel responded by opening fire on Shiite bases in Zar’it. It should not be forgotten that Spain has 663 soldiers in the region called the Green Line. Finul is the international force leading the separation at this border, with a total of nearly 10,000 blue helmets.
Tel Aviv’s response in this area is limited for now. Israeli Ambassador to Spain, Rodica Radian-Gordon, He told this newspaper that one of the Army’s three priorities right now is avoid tension (the other two finish off Hamas and release the kidnapped). The Israeli Ministry of Defense said that the country has no interest in waging war against Hezbollah in Lebanon, but will take care to control the activities of the “terrorist organization”.
Nor does Iran, Hezbollah, or any other regional actor currently appear to have any interest in escalating the conflict. Hezbollah still remembers that more than a thousand people died in Israel’s 2006 attack. And Lebanon is experiencing a huge political, economic and humanitarian crisis. The Iranian regime, on the other hand, is still suffering the consequences of the protests over the murder of young Mahsa Amini by the morality police and is subject to international sanctions. Moussa Bourekba concludes: “He wants to get out of this isolation, and I don’t think it has anything to do with the United States, in particular, showing that it can respond to any attempt at direct intervention with its military presence.” But he warns that rational calculation can in any case be compared to the emotional factor. “There is a problem in all of this, the feeling that the Palestinian people are being humiliated among the Arab people and their leaders. “This could accelerate regional tension.”