Contrary to the analysis carried out by the tax office Airef, the Ministry of Social Security published this Tuesday the report “Public expenditure estimates on pensions in Spain”, reflecting the reforms carried out by the Government since 2021 (to reduce expenditure and increase revenue). ) guarantees that the system will be sustainable until 2050 and that there will be no need to make new regulations or introduce increases in social contributions, which are part of the automatic protection mechanism of the system envisaged in the law.
commitment to Europe
The publication of this document is part of the commitments. rescue plan linked to spain Fourth payment of European funds Next Generation EU (for €10,000 million), which the incumbent Government is preparing to request from Brussels in the coming weeks.
As outlined in your Recovery Plan landmark 410, Spain should have carried out the publication of updated projections before the end of 2022, showing how the pension reforms carried out in 2021 and 2022 guarantee long-term fiscal sustainability, while also taking into account the impact of other structural reforms, such as pension reforms. labor market”. This is the report published by the Ministry of Social Security this Tuesday, which paves the way for the incumbent Government to make a request to Brussels. The fourth payment of European funds, For 10,000 million.
Economic and demographic forecasts
Based on certain macroeconomic forecasts (growth, inflation, employment and productivityabove all) and demographic characteristics (fertility rate, life expectancy and migrationThe 190-page document, prepared by Acting Minister José Luis Escriva, states that until 2050, pension expenditures will never exceed 15% of GDP, and in addition the revenue measures adopted will result in extra collections (equivalent to 1.8% of GDP each year) Annual average).
According to the pension reform law, if these two conditions are actually met (pension expenditures do not rise above 15% of GDP and revenue measures contribute at least 1.7% of GDP), the pension system of the next 30 years will not meet any of these parameters. new regulations will have to be considered if one fails, and the Independent Authority for Responsibility (Airef), which has its own figures, believes this will happen very soon, in 2025, on the occasion of the first review. of the model.
The main difference between the predictions of the Escrivá ministry and Airef’s predictions is productivity of active populationIn the government document it is much higher.
The demographic forecasts of the Escrivá ministry are based on a fertility rate 1.36 children per woman in 2050; A. life expectancy In 2050, this age will increase to 91.4 years for women and 87.1 years for men. network migration Around 300,000 people each year, which is a similar figure to this and last year, but much higher than the figure predicted by INE, which carries an average of 200,000 people a year.
Additionally, the Government’s economic forecasts include a gradual increase. Occupancy rates through labor reform, delayed retirement incentives and tightening of labor markets. It is expected 65 year occupancy rate It will rise from the current 20% to 55% in 2050, and the proportion of people aged 66 to 70 will also increase from 5% to 22%.
Predictions also start with an increase. nominal GDP Between 3.5% and 4%; a ratio inflation about 2%; A. business rate will increase from the current 71% to 79.5% and unemployment rate If there is zero growth or decrease in employment in the final years of the period, it will fall from the current 11.4% to 5.5%.
With all this, taking into account the increase in new pensions for baby boomers and the reassessment of benefits according to the CPI, Escrivá’s ministry estimates that pension spending will reach a maximum of 15% of GDP in the 1940s and then decline in the 1940s. 14.2% of GDP in 2050. During this period, income measures are also estimated to provide resources equivalent to 1.8% of GDP on average each year.