HE increase in interest rates and next price increase mortgages one opened harmful circle in the housing market in Spain. The balance between the average housing price and sufficient debt capacity for its acquisition, taking into account the average income of citizens, draws an index determined by experts. Valuation Society they called accessibility index. This index shows that Buying a house in Spain has never been harder since 2012. According to this indicator, since it started to decline in the third quarter of 2021, it continues its downward trend in the last quarter. The index, which started from the balance point of 100 points, was at 74 points with a decrease of 25 points in September. up four points from the previous year and from the previous quarter. In percentage terms, this corresponds to a decrease of 25.3% and 5.1% respectively. This is the lowest figure since the second quarter of 2012 (71 points).
The data clearly confirms the sentiments of citizens and the predictions that the industry has been making for months. While general indicators in the real estate industry tend to be unreliable, the reality is that tensions between supply and demand vary widely by asset type and region. Appraisal Association accessibility index It shows a very general negative development. Thus, in terms of the autonomous community, the Balearic Islands, Madrid, Catalonia and the Basque Country continue to have the lowest accessibility index compared to the Spanish average. 11 out of 17 communities present an index that does not reach the 100-point barrier that marks the equilibrium point. So the average citizen of these autonomies You can’t afford an average home on an average salary without going into more debt than is reasonable.. Rather, there are six autonomies above this point; Region of Murcia (113 points), La Rioja and Castilla la Mancha (108 points in both cases) have a higher accessibility rate.
Consuelo Villanueva, Director of Institutions and Large Accounts at the Appraisal Association, explains: “The negative trend of this index is a more restrictive monetary policy “This situation, more than initially expected, has led to a gradual increase in the cost of financing and new restrictions on credit by financial institutions.”
What is special about the current situation is that housing prices, both new and used, tend not to be prohibitively expensive, but are still around 3.7% on an annualized basis (compared to 4.65% in 2022). home buying problems are bigger right now and this has a clear effect cancellation of purchasing decisions A more positive global situation is expected.
Price control
Experts point out that the indicators strengthen the idea that housing prices, especially second-hand houses, will have to fall in the coming months. According to experts at the Appraisal Association, prices will trend towards a moderate increase. In any case, each micromarket determines its own trends based on the current offer, price ranges and typical customers. The decrease in the number of activities will in any case affect prices, reduce the number of potential customers or reduce the demand for replacement of primary residences in previous years.
The latest data from the Spanish College of Registrars confirms the general situation. In July, total purchases and sales decreased again compared to the same month of the previous year, falling for eight consecutive months after the usual increase since March 2020. Of the 96,104 operations performed in July 2022, 87,674 took place in July this year. Around 8,400 fewer operations. Home sales dropped from 51,490 listings in July 2022 to 45,630 this July, pushing the figure down slightly more heavily by 5,800 operations.