First sign that violence is escalating brutally euribor Could reach a level starting in early 2022 turning point. In the absence of data on the two working days remaining to the end of the month, most mortgages Spain aims to close August on average about 4.072%. If approved, it will mean your first autumn after months Shoot at 4.6 points It rose one percentage point from -0.502% in December 2021 to 4,149% last July, an unprecedented increase in 19 months. Even more relevant to floating rate mortgages: dues Loans that need to be reviewed with August Euribor softer climb from the experiences of users of the index last Septembera moderation where everything shows it will expand in the coming months.
Although there are floating rate mortgages that are reviewed semiannually, most once a year. Quotas increase if Euribor increases higher than a year ago On the month that serves as a reference for reviewing the loan. Why quota increases are starting to slow and will slow down more prominent new levels of exactly Euribor in the coming months to compare with those second part of 2022significantly higher of those First half this exercise. Thus, Euribor started that year at -0.477% in January and rose to 3.018% in December.
In August last year, the index was 1.249. difference between years now it will be about 2.82 points percentage. To put it in perspective, the differences from year to year were less one percentage point between January and May 2022 and three points until last September. In October they reached 3.1 points, in March they maximum 3,884 pointsand since then they began to moderate softening the climbs until quotas drop below three points per capita this August for the first time in eleven months.
climb on climb
Of course, quotas will increase less, but they will continue to riseat least short term. Inside 150,000 euro mortgage Monthly fee for up to 24 years with Euribor plus 1% referenced August data (usually reviewed in October), from 674 to 901ie 227 euros per month, 2,724 euros per year more. for one 300,000 credits There will be an increase in the euro with the same characteristics From 1,348 to 1,803 Euros: 455 euros more per month and 5,460 euros more per year.
Also, the blow to the mortgaged one will be softer, but it will come later. hard hit this is already appropriate twelve months ago. In order to understand what they have suffered in the last two years, the installments of the two loans used as a reference have been revised with 2019 data. 552 and 1,105 euros in August 2021 will increase by 349 and 698 euros per month, respectively, and will increase in two years. So they will 63% more expensive.
For this reason, some five million mortgages for housing purchase 3.7 million they are variable rate affiliated with Euribor. Of the latter, about 35% (1,295 million) with index data from January to June, 25% (925,000) from July to September and slightly less than 40% (1.48 million) from October. Revised from December to December. . higher rises The majority of quotas exceeding three percentage points plus the difference, about three million households (about 80% of all Euribor-linked mortgages) loans were analyzed with index data from last October to July.
Cuts at the expense of the ECB
Mother study servicesPublishers of Euribor forecasts estimate that yes the index has surpassed its maximum and will continue to fall in the coming months. banker It is expected to average 4.1 percent this year, 3.7 percent next year, and 3.2 percent in 2025. CaixaBankFor its part, it forecasts 3.86% this December and 2.8% by the end of 2024. Funcas predicts that this will decrease from the 4.03% average in the fourth quarter of 2023 to 3.33% between October and December of the next fiscal year. .
If so, quota increases mortgages they will continue to be moderate in the next few years, and there will even come a time when will start to fallr, maybe around second quarter Next year. But all this adhere to What does the European Central Bank do?ECB) with reference rates to combat inflation. Euribor, which theoretically measures how much banks charge each other for lending, to wait What level will the species be? twelve months laterplus a cousin.
So the index started to fall because the market, End of rate hike cycle If not reached yet, central bank officials are just around the corner. Monetary authority remained open remove them again mid September or leave them unchangedbut he also gave hints that in principle there are not many downloads left. But there is always possibility This inflation give back shoot yourself Increasing signs of weakness in the eurozone economy make this less likely, forcing monetary policy to tighten further.