Is it known how the number of deliberate murders has changed throughout human history?
– There are statistics on deliberate killing throughout human history, but they are rather scattered and controversial. However, there is the work of Manuel Eisner (Wolfson Professor of Criminology at the University of Cambridge and Deputy Director of the Cambridge Institute of Criminology) involved in the creation of a historical database on homicides. He collected data for quite some time, beginning in the 13th century AD. There was data for predominantly Western European countries, particularly countries such as Belgium, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain, Sweden and Switzerland. He also analyzed the USA.
According to him, in the 14th century, in the 1300s, the murder rate in Western Europe ranged from about 23 to 56 deaths per 100,000 people per year. That’s a pretty high figure, but comparable to the current murder rate in Latin America.
– So what is happening now in Latin America, Europe in the Middle Ages?
– Yes. And then the murder rate in Europe fell sharply from the 1300s to the 1800s. Somewhere around 78%. Then it fell by 98% in the Scandinavian countries. This happened in the 1990s. And England, Germany, Switzerland, Italy reached the lowest level of murders in the 2000s (hereinafter, the scientist will be referred to UN data – socialbites.ca).
– The decrease in crime in the late 90s of the 20th century is also called the “major drop in crime”. What are the main causes?
“Scientists have many theories as to why this is happening. There are also more exotic ones, such as climate change. Let’s say the change in average daily and average annual temperature affects the level of aggression. There is a hypothesis that says air pollution is associated with an increase in the level of aggression. It may affect the economic change in crime level. For example, increasing wealth usually reduces murder rates. At the same time, for example, poverty, unemployment increases on the contrary. The prison factor also has a strong effect.
– What is in your mind?
– In countries with a large number of convicts, as a rule, a large number of murders. But the question here is what is primary and what is secondary. Of course, if more murders are committed, perhaps these people will be prosecuted. At least this point has been repeatedly addressed in UN reports on the killings.
There is another nuance: in countries where theft and drug crime are high, and in countries where murders are also very high. This is especially true for Latin American countries. There is a struggle between street gangs and the state, the state’s fight against drug trafficking and drug cartels. The murders here are a side factor of the showdowns.
Indeed, conceptually, crime is a cost of social development.
– How come?
For example, here’s a good analogy: economic growth has costs, eg environmental pollution. The reasons for these costs vary from country to country. Nobody is claiming that environmental pollution is bad. However, no country will compromise on economic growth. Already developed countries have developed mechanisms to deal with such costs and today they are no longer leaders in, for example, pollution (they have strong “green” trends). But it wasn’t always like that.
Similarly, regarding crime: Manuel Eisner’s research shows that the leaders of murders in the past are now prosperous Sweden, Switzerland and Belgium etc. clearly shows that. Obviously, they have passed a stage in their social development, their society has become more humane, tolerant. Developing countries, for the most part, have not yet taken this road, and of course, it is not without cost.
– In addition, with technologies that allow crime to be solved in developed countries, better …
– And besides, the general aging of the population is especially evident in them. Older people are less likely to commit crimes, while people under 29 are more likely to commit crimes.
– It turns out that in Africa, where there is a young population, there is no transparency and well-being, the most murders should be committed?
“The highest increase in murders was recorded there. But no more than in Latin America.
Over a twenty-year period, the number of deliberate killings in Africa has increased by 49%. This is the largest increase among other parts of the world.
– Is GDP somehow related to the number of intentional homicides?
I tried to count. Ironically, there is no correlation between GDP per capita and the number of intentional homicides. But here I would like to immediately note that GDP per capita is not the first and only indicator of the well-being of the population. Well-being is a broader and more comprehensive concept.
No property classifications appear behind the GDP data. In other words, a country can be conditionally rich, but this wealth can be concentrated in the hands of a small number of people.
Are you saying that Africa’s GDP per capita is very low, so they should commit more murders?
– That’s exactly what I wanted to say. But the important thing is that the culture of collecting and providing statistical data in Africa is still very low. Therefore, probably the data on conditional Sudan, Niger, the Central African Republic and some other countries are not entirely correct.
It is also interesting that there is ethnic crime in Latin America and in Africa as well. And it’s also in the USA.
Just look at the map of Africa – and we will see that many borders are drawn there as if under a ruler. It turned out that the same ethnic group came to different sides of the border. And it turned out to be a minority in a country with a warring ethnic group. This leads to oppression, various forms of discrimination, and leads to aggression, including murder.
– You said that crime has increased the most in Africa. And who is in second place?
– In second place is North America, which is curious. And thanks in large part to the United States.
This is because the United States is one of the few countries that does not require a permit to possess and carry weapons of any kind. Of course, the situation may differ from state to state. According to the FBI, US arms sales rose steadily between 2015 and 2019, reaching a record high in 2020.
There is also official data: 13% of firearms found by law enforcement officers were used in crimes within six months of purchase.
– How? The United States is in second place, despite increasing well-being, transparency, as well as a strong aging of the population …
– I think this is due to the free movement of arms and the fact that the United States is a country of immigrants. Most of their crimes are committed by Hispanics and African Americans. Asian immigrants are very respectful in this regard.
– Who is the third in terms of crime increase?
– Latin America. Speaking of specific figures, Africa increased 49%, North America 37%, and Latin America 21%. This is the last 20 years.
– Who’s next?
“Australia and Oceania are next.
– We talked about the increase in the number of deliberate murders. And in which countries is the absolute number of such murders the greatest?
– If we talk specifically about countries, then the leader is El Salvador – there are 48.7 deaths per 100 thousand people. Moreover, places where the murder rate exceeds 30 per 100 thousand people, these are Venezuela, Brazil, Honduras, Colombia, Guatemala. In Venezuela it’s around 38-39. In Guatemala – 35.4. In Colombia – 35.7. in Honduras – 33.8.
– Yet these are countries with large drug trafficking …
– Yes. Among African countries, South Africa and Lesotho are included in this list. In South Africa, there are about 34.4 deaths per 100,000 people. In Lesotho, it is slightly higher, about 36.
— How many are there in the USA?
— The relative rate of intentional homicides in the US is 5.4 deaths per 100,000 people. Against the background of these countries, the United States looks decent. On the other hand, they look worse than some European countries.
– And where is Russia on this straight line?
– The murder rate in Russia is 15.2 deaths per 100 thousand. There is one nuance though: these are UN data. If we look at the data for Russia, there is a slightly different picture. According to EMISS data, there are 4.7 deaths per 100,000, which is 3 times lower.
— Has this level been maintained for 20 years?
— In 2000, there were 40 murders for every 100,000 people. This is according to the UNODC Committee on Drugs and Crime (International Murder Statistics). Then there was a decline that was quite evident until 2008. For the first time in 2008, our murder rate fell below 18 per 100,000 people. And from then on it dropped even further to 15.2.
— Do residents of only 10 countries in the world commit about half of all intentional homicides?
– Yes. In 2000, the top 10 countries accounted for 63% of all homicides worldwide. Relatively speaking, if there are about 430,000 murders, then 63% make up the top 10. In 2019, this share decreased slightly to 58%. These numbers haven’t changed much in 20 years. This shows that now, 20 years ago, the top three, five, top ten countries were responsible for the same number of murders.
Is Russia among these anti-leaders?
– NO. There are the main Latin American countries: El Salvador, Brazil, Colombia, Venezuela and Mexico. Of the African countries, this is South Africa and Lesotho. Russia is not in the top ten.