someone Vilnius does not seem destined to have any summit NATO. first meeting general secretary, Jens Stoltenbergwill preside after the extension of his mandate The development of the principles brings with it important issues. Madrid Summitor derived from new strategic requirements. war in ukraine.
From discussion threads forwarded to 31 existing members North Atlantic Treaty Organizationfive stand out for their urgency or transcendence.
founding of sweden
It is probably the most pressing political debate. There is no precedent for such a stranded joint stock company. veto of an ally.
input Sweden It is also awaiting final approval. Hungarybut this Türkiye main obstacle. Executive Recep Tayyip Erdogan It arrives at the summit of Vilnius in a position very similar to its initial position. blockade at the entrance of the last Scandinavian country — shortly before the Madrid summit that the Atlantic Alliance is lacking; The state knocking on its doors contrary to its tradition, russian armored They entered Ukraine.
recent expansion north of the North Atlantic, Yes As long as Sweden does not change its stance, the Turkish Government’s asylum policy public portions islamophobia It is the most visible cause of anger for Ankara by the Swedish far right, but there is a deeper strategic problem than that. Burning of the Holy Quran in front of the Great Mosque Stockholm: Sweden’s refuge for activists pkkThe Kurdistan Communist Party is the author of the major attacks in Turkey.
Ankara wants an armed branch Kurdish independence movement There is no welcome corner in Europe. Sweden is not only hosting PKK members, but also YPG militia (Kurdish People’s Protection Units), war against ISIS in northern Syria.
However, Spanish military sources claim that Erdogan could take advantage of the summit to take advantage of it, as it is no longer in question. the tension and temporal nature of a choice.
Of all the preparatory work done by Jens Stoltenberg for the Vilnius summit, the most intense Bilateral contacts of Swedish and Turkish officials. Even on Monday, with a meeting between Erdogan and the Swedish prime minister, ulf kristerssonwhich leaves an agreement to take to the summit’s plenary.
Relations with Ukraine
If Ukraine were a NATO country, World War 3 would probably have been declared on February 24, 2022. Pre-activation of Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty by Kiev. Therefore, it is not possible today for Ukraine to join the Alliance, which was conceived at the 2008 Bucharest Summit, and to deploy Western personnel on the Donbas or Zaporiya fronts before Russia.
And yet Ukraine received in a year NATO viewyes in uses, doctrine, communications, intelligence and weapons due to the enormous accumulation of materials and the influence of Western advice in the face of Russian aggression, if not all of its equipment.
This reality is responded to with a relative mode of inclusion: NATO-Ukraine Council, an embryo that needs political approval in Vilnius. As before the current cold war return There was the NATO-Russia CouncilThe Alliance implements a NATO-Ukraine Council.
It has been three weeks since the Allies reviewed the organization’s activities at the ministerial level. NATO-Ukraine Commission or NUC, created in 1997, the forum step prior to the creation of the Council. In this commission, Ukraine votes like the others, participates in the “political framework” and receives documents on moderately classified subjects within this political framework.
This is a form of cooperation very similar to what Russia has done with NATO before. The tension that Vladimir Putin started in 2014 take the Crimea with their “little green men”.
Moscow not only had access to documents, but also trained with the West. There were the Russians in Spain before they could go any further. 2011 naval exercise Bold Monarch. Rescue of a diver crew was rehearsed. Russia provided the submarine lock with the advanced CK-84 rescue bell. Russian divers in Cartagena waters They went hand in hand with those in NATO.
Powered by DDA: more teeth to show
More soldiers on the alert borders with Russia, with more AA defenses, more artillery and more armored vehicles. Eastern European allies demand it. The 2022 Spain summit assessed that the new scenario in Europe is necessary. Stronger deterrence against Russia That the Madrid Strategic Concept returns the “threat” qualifier.
“Madrid has indoctrinated what was already being done after the start of the Russian occupation,” explains one of the senior officials EL PERIÓDICO consulted. Vilnius will turn doctrine into military plans“.
Allies in the east, especially Poland and the Baltic states, are coming to demand concrete wording to reinforce the call. DDA (Deterrence and Defense of the Euroatlanic Region)). “They demand that their regional deterrence and defense plans state that: which units are assigned and the state of readiness –describes one of the cited sources. So far, plans “without too many conceptual details”.
In March 2022, NATO deployed armored presence and air police missions from the United States. Balticand battalions Bulgaria, Poland, Hungary, Romania and Slovakia. Now you want to increase the capacity and size. Talent: That the Reaction Force can react within a maximum of five days. Size: battalion to brigade.
Vilnius will give a twist to the degree of readiness and response capacity of forces. And for Spain, this implies having the unity stated in it. stand byarmed with ammunition Movement throughout the 30-day war one of his arrival NTM, Notice of Relocation.
Affects a list with this prediction five categories: 1, food; 2, spare parts and equipment; 3, fuel; 4, reinforcement elements; and 5, ammunition. “In other words, a gigantic Excel spreadsheet,” one senior official sums up.
In the negotiation between the allies, there is one job that no one chooses: logistics. “It’s cumbersome, complicated, expensive… And at least for you… but if you do it for someone else, you don’t have full control over the use of resources,” he says.
New command structure
Allocation means deterring Russia A Force Building Conference will include: After the political decision, the chiefs of staff of each country sat down to distribute the duties.
He has to get out of the conference CJSOR or Combined Common Requirements Statementunified joint statement of needs: how many people, how much media, how much capital.
The calculation will be affected by the new command structure. The United States wants — first of all — a more agile NATO. One military source claims that it’s about politicians getting quicker access to military advice, and that “this is also done by summarizing information.”
american army, worried about the speed of attacks in hybrid warfarepress for faster decision making, Accelerating the NCRS (Nato Crisis Response System)and that means removing time from politics.
allies european hard core (France, Italy, Germany, Spain…) less favorably, more a formal meeting of the North Atlantic Council before any operational plan is activatedIn S. Vilnius, they could argue that a decline occurred during the crisis. missile on Polish soilIn November, politicians reacted quickly.
Presented in Vilnius for a new command structure ready in July 2024. Another Turkish obstacle: Ankara will not accept a NATO military zone in its territory without its headquarters on its territory.
More infrastructure to defend
NATO has grown eastward faster on paper than on the ground. When he sees Russia as a reliable friend, Alliance delays development of military infrastructure towards eastern border. Hurry now.
one in Madrid Infrastructure Improvement Programand progress will be made in Vilnius: great distribution in the eastNATO needs great communication routes, expanded airports, deeper ports and very long oil pipelines.
model Rotozar, Rota-Torrejón-Zaragoza fuel pipeline, Spain’s main military artery. For example, there is no such pipeline between the Dutch coast and Romania’s northern border.
There is no pipeline, to launch a major war effort in the east, Endless stream of tankers across Europe. Note taken Blockade of Russian cars due to lack of fuel on the roads of Ukraine shortly after the start of the war.