The other day, the head of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine Oleksiy Danilov announced a change in the strategy of the counterattack of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. He argues that now the main goal will not be progress, but the “exhaustion of the Russian army.”
“At this stage of active hostilities, the Ukrainian defense forces perform the number one task – the maximum destruction of manpower, fuel depots, military equipment, command posts, artillery and air defense forces,” said the NSDC Secretary.
The statements of the officials of the opposing sides during the armed conflict should be treated with reasonable skepticism, and in this case one should constantly ask the question: Is such frank speech of the Ukrainian politician an element of an operational camouflage scheme? Does the enemy mislead us with such a statement regarding his true intentions?
But this time in the speech of Alexei Danilov one gets the impression that everything roughly corresponds to reality. According to the statement of the Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council, the Ukrainian Armed Forces has not yet had great successes on the line of contact, and indeed the military-political leadership in Kiev, in this case, makes sense. Go to option “B”.
But regardless, Kiev still wants to put something real on the table of the NATO summit in Vilnius. For the sake of it, apparently, Ukraine is in a hurry to retake Artemovsk (Ukrainian name – Bakhmut) in the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR). It is he who can become the trophy of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. But so far these are just Ukrainian desires, nothing more.
The enemy is now stubbornly besieging the city from the north (Berkhovka settlement) and south (Kleshcheevka, Kurdyumovka). The thing is, in the listed settlements there are predominant heights where Bakhmut can be seen at a glance. And in military affairs this is sometimes decisive. As they say, space is space, and with the help of a simple stereo tube, artillery fire can be adjusted much more efficiently.
Currently, the most intense clashes are taking place in the Kleshcheevka region. Sub-divisions and units of the Ukrainian army have been attacking the village for days, carrying out several attacks a day. Despite some successes, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has not yet officially confirmed the occupation of this settlement.
The settlement itself is not very important, but in the northwest of Kleshcheevka there is a predominant elevation from which all Bakhmut can be seen and shot. If in the near future Russian troops leave Kleshcheevka after heavy fighting, then the surrender of the village will create huge problems for the RF Armed Forces in this defense sector. In this case, even an organized withdrawal of Russian troops from Bakhmut would be very, very difficult.
So far, more or less reliable information from the battlefield is as follows: the dominant height is for the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the village itself is controlled by the Russian army. During a special military operation, Bakhmut became a kind of moral symbol for both warring parties. If the Ukrainian army captures the city in the near future, this will be the possible reward for Ukraine’s first “counter-offensive”.
It should be especially emphasized (and there is no doubt about it) that the possible fall of Bakhmut will significantly strengthen the moral and psychological state of the personnel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The price of the question is therefore very, very high.
The only thing left for the Ukrainian army is to take Kleshcheevka first and then Bakhmut. But whether the Russian military will allow the Ukrainian Armed Forces to do so is still a big question. There is every reason to believe that the defense of Bakhmut for the RF Armed Forces is a matter of principle, and units and troops of the Russian army do not intend to leave the city. Of course, the RF Armed Forces will defend itself in the city with the principle of “not stepping back”.
The opinion of the author may not coincide with the opinion of the editors.
Author biography:
Mikhail Mikhailovich Khodarenok is a military observer of socialbites.ca, a retired colonel.
Graduated from the Minsk Higher Engineering Anti-aircraft Missile School (1976),
Air Defense Military Command Academy (1986).
Commander of the S-75 anti-aircraft missile battalion (1980–1983).
Deputy commander of an anti-aircraft missile regiment (1986–1988).
Senior officer of the Main Staff of the Air Defense Forces (1988–1992).
Chief of the General Staff Main Operations Directorate (1992–2000).
Graduate of the Military Academy of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces (1998).
Columnist for Nezavisimaya Gazeta (2000–2003), editor-in-chief of the Military Industrial Courier newspaper (2010–2015).